Hot Rolled Coil Prices, Chart, News, Monitor and Forecast

Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Price Trend Analysis (YoY Change) - FOB China

The Chinese hot rolled coil (HRC) market experienced notable downward pressure in the final quarter of 2024, continuing the trend observed earlier in the year. According to Free on Board (FOB) China data, prices consistently declined on a year-on-year (YoY) basis when compared to 2023.

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In October 2024, HRC was priced at USD 492 per ton, down from USD 530 per ton in the same month of 2023, reflecting a 7% YoY decrease. This drop was largely driven by sluggish domestic and export demand, coupled with high inventory levels among Chinese steel producers. The construction and manufacturing sectors, key consumers of HRC, showed signs of contraction amid economic uncertainty and reduced infrastructure spending.

The price decline deepened in November 2024, reaching USD 490 per ton, compared to USD 548 per ton in November 2023-marking a significant 10% YoY drop. Weakened global demand, particularly from Southeast Asia and Europe, added further pressure, while elevated energy and logistics costs constrained production efficiency.

By December 2024, prices fell further to USD 484 per ton, down from USD 566 per ton a year earlier. This represented the steepest YoY decline of the quarter at 15%, influenced by oversupply and limited buying interest during the off-peak winter season.

Looking ahead to 2025, Expert Market Research forecasts a slight rebound in HRC prices, supported by anticipated demand recovery in key markets such as India and Southeast Asia. Additionally, tighter supply conditions due to production cuts and environmental restrictions in China could help stabilize and slightly lift prices. While the market may remain volatile, improved macroeconomic conditions and better supply-demand balance are expected to offer moderate price support through 2025.

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Global Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Trade Overview

The international hot rolled coil (HRC) market is shaped by a strong network of exporting and importing countries, driven by industrial demand, infrastructure growth, and manufacturing trends. Major steel producers play a pivotal role in meeting global demand, supplying a wide range of grades and specifications for construction, automotive, and heavy machinery applications.

Leading Exporting Countries

China remains the dominant exporter of HRC, leveraging its massive steel production capacity and competitive pricing. Japan and South Korea also rank among the top exporters, supported by advanced steelmaking technologies and strategic trade relationships across Asia and Europe. Germany and India contribute significantly to global exports, benefiting from diversified product lines and proximity to key markets. Turkey, Belgium, and Vietnam round out the list, each carving out a niche in regional HRC supply with competitive production costs and logistical advantages.

Leading Importing Countries

On the demand side, Italy, Vietnam, and Turkey are among the largest importers of HRC, driven by robust construction and manufacturing sectors. The United States continues to import substantial volumes due to its ongoing infrastructure development and limited domestic supply in certain grades. South Korea, Germany, India, and China also feature prominently as importers, influenced by fluctuating domestic demand, cost considerations, and supply chain diversification strategies.

Major Global Suppliers

The global HRC market is anchored by a group of leading steel producers. China Baowu Steel Group, the world's largest steelmaker, plays a central role in supplying both domestic and international markets. ArcelorMittal (Luxembourg), with its extensive global operations, serves multiple regions efficiently. Nippon Steel Corporation and JFE Steel Corporation (Japan), Hyundai Steel (South Korea), and Tata Steel Group (India) are key Asian suppliers with a strong presence in global trade. Additionally, Ansteel Group (China) and Nucor Corporation (USA) offer high-quality products catering to both developed and emerging markets.

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Report Scope:
• Historical Price Data and Analysis, 2021-2024
o Historical Price Data - Monthly
o Grade-Wise Price Fluctuation
o Correlation with Feedstock Price Movement
o Key Market Opportunities and Risks
• Price Outlook
o Monthly Price Forecast (Rolling 3-month forecast for 12 months) (3 Month Quarterly Update)
o Long-Term Price Forecast (2 years), 2025-2026
o Price Influencing Factors
• Supply and Demand Analysis
o Global Market Supply Analysis (2021-2026)
o Global Market Demand Analysis (2021-2026)
o Demand-Supply Gap Analysis
o Historical Dynamics (2021-2024)
o Market Dynamics (Drivers and Constraints)
o Top 5 Deficit Countries with Net Import
o Top 5 Surplus Countries with Net Export
• Cost Breakdown of Tin Plate
o Direct Cost
o Indirect Costs
o Tax and Regulatory Costs
o Profit Margin
• Latest Industry News
o Recent Developments
o Geopolitical Events
o Insights From Government Data and Industries Bodies
• Key Macroeconomic Indicators
o GDP Growth
o Inflation Rates
o Currency Exchange Rates
o Impact on Commodity Prices

How Claight Corporation (Expert Market Research) Database Can Help

The latest report by Expert Market Research, "Hot Rolled Coil Prices, Trends, Charts, Demand, and Market Analysis - 2025 Edition," offers a comprehensive overview of the global pricing landscape for hot rolled coil. Designed for industry stakeholders, the study provides detailed historical and forecast price data, highlighting key market shifts and emerging pricing trends.

Drawing from in-depth research, the report analyses the primary factors influencing hot rolled coil prices, including fluctuations in raw material availability, changes in production capacity, and macroeconomic or geopolitical developments. Additionally, the report evaluates global and regional demand patterns, outlining how shifts in end-use industries such as construction, paper, and plastics are impacting market dynamics. By examining the supply-demand balance, Expert Market Research's report helps businesses understand the underlying forces shaping current and future pricing environments, offering valuable insights to guide procurement, pricing strategy, and investment planning.

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