Ethanol Prices 2025: Latest Price Fluctuations, Graph, Charts and Forecast

Ethanol Price Trends and Outlook: Ex-Works China

The ethanol market in China experienced notable downward pressure in the final quarter of 2024, with year-over-year (YoY) prices showing a consistent and sharp decline. In October 2024, ethanol was priced at 795 USD/MT, reflecting a 17% decrease from 955 USD/MT in October 2023. The trend continued in November with a price drop to 770 USD/MT, down 18% YoY, and became even more pronounced in December when prices fell to 725 USD/MT, a 24% YoY decrease from 950 USD/MT.

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This decline can largely be attributed to subdued industrial and fuel demand, oversupply in the domestic market, and lower-than-expected economic activity in key ethanol-consuming sectors. In addition, favorable weather conditions in corn-producing regions led to higher feedstock availability, further driving down production costs and ultimately reducing market prices.

However, looking ahead, the outlook for 2025 suggests a potential price recovery. According to Expert Market Research, ethanol prices are likely to rise slightly in the coming year. This is expected to be driven by steady demand, particularly from the biofuel, pharmaceutical, and chemical industries, as well as anticipated increases in feedstock costs, including corn and sugar-based raw materials. Rising crude oil prices and renewed interest in cleaner fuels may also lend upward support to ethanol pricing.

Market participants should prepare for a gradual rebound, with price stabilization or modest growth likely in 2025. Producers may face tighter margins in early months but could benefit from improving demand and cost pass-throughs later in the year. Buyers, on the other hand, might consider securing long-term contracts before prices begin to firm up.
Overall, while 2024 closed with weak pricing, 2025 brings cautious optimism for recovery in China's ethanol market.

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Global Ethanol Trade Overview: Leading Exporters, Importers, and Major Suppliers

Leading Exporting Countries

The global ethanol trade is led by a handful of key producers with strong agricultural and refining capacities. The United States remains the world's largest ethanol exporter, supported by its vast corn-based ethanol industry and advanced biofuel infrastructure. Brazil follows closely, leveraging its large-scale sugarcane ethanol production. European countries like the Netherlands, Hungary, Spain, France, and Belgium also contribute to global exports, benefiting from their integration into EU trade systems and growing renewable fuel mandates. Pakistan is another emerging exporter, supplying regional and international markets.

Leading Importing Countries

On the demand side, Canada imports substantial volumes of ethanol, largely for blending into transportation fuels to meet its renewable fuel standards. The Netherlands and the UK serve as major European importers, acting both as consumers and re-export hubs. Germany, France, Belgium, and Japan also rely on imports to support biofuel blending targets and industrial use. Outside of the traditional markets, the Philippines is a notable importer in Asia, where rising energy needs and clean fuel policies are driving demand.

Major Suppliers

Several global companies dominate ethanol production and supply. In the U.S., POET Biorefining, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Valero Energy, and Green Plains Inc. are leading players with large-scale facilities and global distribution networks. From Brazil, Raízen-a joint venture between Cosan and Shell-stands out, along with major producers like Tereos Group, LDC Bioenergia, and São Martinho S.A., all of which leverage Brazil's efficient sugarcane ethanol production system.

This network of exporters, importers, and suppliers underscores ethanol's growing importance as a sustainable fuel source, and reflects the global shift toward cleaner energy and stricter emissions standards.

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Report Scope:
• Historical Price Data and Analysis, 2021-2024
o Historical Price Data - Monthly
o Grade-Wise Price Fluctuation
o Correlation with Feedstock Price Movement
o Key Market Opportunities and Risks
• Price Outlook
o Monthly Price Forecast (Rolling 3-month forecast for 12 months) (3 Month Quarterly Update)
o Long-Term Price Forecast (2 years), 2025-2026
o Price Influencing Factors
• Supply and Demand Analysis
o Global Market Supply Analysis (2021-2026)
o Global Market Demand Analysis (2021-2026)
o Demand-Supply Gap Analysis
o Historical Dynamics (2021-2024)
o Market Dynamics (Drivers and Constraints)
o Top 5 Deficit Countries with Net Import
o Top 5 Surplus Countries with Net Export
• Cost Breakdown of Tin Plate
o Direct Cost
o Indirect Costs
o Tax and Regulatory Costs
o Profit Margin
• Latest Industry News
o Recent Developments
o Geopolitical Events
o Insights From Government Data and Industries Bodies
• Key Macroeconomic Indicators
o GDP Growth
o Inflation Rates
o Currency Exchange Rates
o Impact on Commodity Prices

How Claight Corporation (Expert Market Research) Database Can Help

The latest report by Expert Market Research, "Ethanol Prices, Trends, Charts, Demand, and Market Analysis - 2025 Edition," offers a comprehensive overview of the global pricing landscape for ethanol. Designed for industry stakeholders, the study provides detailed historical and forecast price data, highlighting key market shifts and emerging pricing trends.

Drawing from in-depth research, the report analyses the primary factors influencing ethanol prices, including fluctuations in raw material availability, changes in production capacity, and macroeconomic or geopolitical developments. Additionally, the report evaluates global and regional demand patterns, outlining how shifts in end-use industries such as construction, paper, and plastics are impacting market dynamics. By examining the supply-demand balance, Expert Market Research's report helps businesses understand the underlying forces shaping current and future pricing environments, offering valuable insights to guide procurement, pricing strategy, and investment planning.

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About Claight Corporation (Expert Market Research):

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