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North America Residential Furnace Market Forecasted to Grow at 5.8% CAGR from 2022 to 2031 - Analysis by TMR
North America Residential Furnace Market
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Market Size and Growth
In 2021, the North America residential furnace market stood at USD 7.4 billion, marking a significant share of the global HVAC market. Analysts predict that by 2031, this figure will rise to USD 12.9 billion, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% from 2022 onward. Several factors are contributing to this consistent growth. These include replacement demand for aging systems, government incentives for high-efficiency models, and consumer education on the long-term cost benefits of advanced furnaces. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic led to increased time spent indoors, reinforcing the importance of indoor comfort and air quality - a trend that continues to shape consumer preferences.
Market Segmentation
The residential furnace market in North America is segmented based on product type, fuel type, distribution channel, and region. By product type, the market includes gas furnaces, oil furnaces, and electric furnaces, with gas furnaces dominating the segment due to their cost-effectiveness and widespread infrastructure. In terms of fuel, natural gas remains the primary energy source due to its abundance and relatively low cost.
Distribution channels are divided between offline retail (home improvement stores, HVAC distributors) and online platforms, with digital channels seeing notable growth post-pandemic due to convenience and broader product access. Among user demographics, the replacement segment holds a larger share than first-time installations, driven by a maturing housing stock and aging furnace systems.
Regional Analysis
Geographically, the U.S. accounts for the lion's share of the North America residential furnace market, led by states in the Midwest and Northeast where winters are particularly harsh. Canada also represents a significant portion, with cold weather and energy-efficiency mandates fueling furnace upgrades and replacements. Urban centers such as Chicago, Toronto, New York City, and Minneapolis are seeing especially high demand. Regulatory frameworks such as ENERGY STAR standards and utility rebates have further driven adoption of high-efficiency models across both nations.
Market Trends
Several key trends are shaping the future of the North America residential furnace market:
Smart Furnaces and IoT Integration: Homeowners are increasingly seeking furnaces that can be connected to mobile apps and smart home systems, offering remote control, diagnostics, and energy use analytics.
Energy Efficiency and Eco-Friendly Designs: High Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency (AFUE) ratings are becoming a baseline expectation as consumers and regulators demand greener solutions.
Hybrid Systems: Combining heat pumps with furnaces to optimize heating based on outdoor temperature is gaining popularity, particularly in regions with milder winters.
Subscription-Based HVAC Services: A growing number of manufacturers and service providers are offering subscription models for maintenance, upgrades, and equipment replacement, improving consumer convenience and long-term relationships.
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Competitive Landscape
The residential furnace market in North America is highly competitive, with several major players leading innovation and market share. Prominent manufacturers include:
Carrier Global Corporation
Daikin Industries, Ltd.
Fujitsu General Limited
Goodman Manufacturing
Ingersoll-Rand plc
Johnson Controls, Inc.
Lennox International Inc.
Nortek Global HVAC LLC
Trane Technologies plc
United Technologies Corporation
These companies are investing heavily in R&D, expanding product portfolios, and forming strategic partnerships to gain a competitive edge. Mergers and acquisitions, particularly those that enhance technological capabilities or expand geographic reach, are common across this segment.
Future Outlook
Looking ahead, the North American residential furnace market is well-positioned for long-term growth. With a strong foundation of established players, evolving technologies, and an environmentally-conscious customer base, the industry is expected to sustain healthy momentum through 2031 and beyond. Innovations in energy storage, grid connectivity, and hybrid heating systems will further diversify offerings and enhance consumer value.
Policymakers are also expected to tighten energy-efficiency standards, which will push the market toward more sustainable options. As the housing market continues to recover and home renovation surges, demand for high-performance, cost-effective, and smart heating solutions will continue to grow.
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About Transparency Market Research
Transparency Market Research, a global market research company registered at Wilmington, Delaware, United States, provides custom research and consulting services. Our exclusive blend of quantitative forecasting and trends analysis provides forward-looking insights for thousands of decision makers. Our experienced team of Analysts, Researchers, and Consultants use proprietary data sources and various tools & techniques to gather and analyses information.
Our data repository is continuously updated and revised by a team of research experts, so that it always reflects the latest trends and information. With a broad research and analysis capability, Transparency Market Research employs rigorous primary and secondary research techniques in developing distinctive data sets and research material for business reports.
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