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The Pharmaceutical Market: China

OVERVIEW OF THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET IN CHINA

We remain bullish on China's pharmaceutical sector despite the slowdown in the economy and political reshuffle. We do not think the reshuffle will have any adverse changes or cause any reversals to healthcare reform given that the country has been rolling out various healthcare schemes in 2012 and that a key person overseeing these healthcare reform plans is Vice Premier Li Keqiang, the man who may potentially take over from Premier Wen Jiabao in the reshuffle. However, the business environment will potentially be threaten by cost- containment policies as the country will have to contain its ever-growing healthcare expenditure.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: CNY432bn (US66.7bn) in 2011to CNY521bn (US$82.2bn) in 2012; +20.6% in local currency and +23.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q412.
Healthcare: CNY2313bn (US$358bn) in 2011 to CNY2,602bn (US$410bn) in 2012; +12.5% in local currency terms and +14.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q412.
Medical Devices: CNY117bn (US$18.2bn) in 2011 to CNY146bn (US$22.8bn) in 2012; +24.3% in local currency terms and +26.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q412.

Risk/Reward Rating

China continues to rank fourth out of the 18 key markets in BMI's Q113 Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings with an unchanged score of 62.5 Its high ranking on the table (just behind developed markets Japan, South Korea and Australia) is largely due to the strong growth potential of the pharmaceutical market that is underpinned by a large and increasingly affluent population and an increasing burden of non-communication diseases.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

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Table of Contents

BMI Industry View7
SWOT9
Political11
Economic12
Business Environment14
Industry Forecast15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast15

Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2009-201716

Healthcare Market Forecast17

Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2009-201718
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2009-201718
Table: Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2009-201719

Economic Analysis19
The Recovery Is On-20
-But Major Headwinds Blow22
2012 Was Only A Warning Shot23
Risks Are Weighted To The Downside24

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