New Zealand Telecoms Industry Report: Transformations, Acquisitions, and Growth Prospects

NEWS PROVIDED BY
Idem Est Research & Advisory
17 July 2023, 16:00 AEST
New Zealand Telecom Industry Market Report forecasts 9m mobile and fixed broadband subscribers by 2030
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

New Zealand Telecoms Industry Report: Transformations, Acquisitions, and Growth Prospects

Key Highlights from the New Zealand Telecoms Industry Report:

Game-Changing Mergers and Acquisitions: Over the last four years, infrastructure funds have collectively invested over NZD 11 billion in acquiring assets across retail telecommunications operators and digital infrastructure, including mobile towers and fibre infrastructure. This new ownership marks the beginning of a new era of investment and infrastructure development.

Infrastructure Divestments by Spark, One NZ, and 2degrees: Spark, One NZ, and 2degrees have embarked on divestments of passive tower infrastructure, paving the way for strategic transformations and fresh opportunities.

Trustpower Customer Base Acquired: Mercury successfully acquires Trustpower's retail customer base, expanding its reach and enhancing its service offerings.

Broadband Revolution Achieved: The completion of the UFB project ensures world-class broadband speeds across New Zealand, empowering individuals, businesses, and communities with 80% of users on 300Mbps speed plans or higher. With the completion of UFB2, New Zealand must continue to expand its fibre footprint in more regional and remote areas, guided by the government and councils through co-investment models. Increasing fibre penetration will also support fibre infrastructure to mobile towers, which currently lags behind other countries in the region.

The Future Beckons: Idem Est Research Forecasts and Insights

Idem Est Research predicts strong overall growth in the telecoms market until 2030, with more investments required in mobile networks and the nationwide phasing out of 3G by 2025.

Capex Transformation: After experiencing a Capex hyper-cycle that peaked in 2019, New Zealand is transitioning to a more sustainable level, with an expected Capex to GDP ratio of 22% through to 2030. Chorus will continue to invest significantly in fibre infrastructure until 2024, while Spark, One NZ, and 2degrees focus primarily on 5G advancements, though 5G coverage lags behind.

Data Dominance: The increasing popularity of social media platforms, online gaming, and streaming services has fueled the demand for data services in the country. However, Kiwis are among the lowest mobile data users in the region, with average monthly downloads of under 5GB compared to other markets exceeding 20GB.

Infrastructure: The Ultra-Fast Broadband Initiative, a groundbreaking program by the New Zealand Government, has been a game-changer, deploying fibre-to-the-home networks across 87% of the population. With over 1.3 million premises connected, the broadband market is now driven by new constructions and urban redevelopment, boosting fixed-broadband subscribers.

Government Support: The New Zealand government needs to focus on the last 10%, fostering co-investments from infrastructure operators, towercos, and councils to bring new mobile and fibre coverage. These measures should facilitate infrastructure development and improve connectivity in underserved areas.

Future Prospects: Idem Est Research's analysis forecasts a positive outlook for the New Zealand telecom market despite a tapering Capex cycle. Telecom operators should focus on lower-income households for fixed broadband to increase penetration. Additionally, progress in 5G rollout, "fiberization" of mobile towers, increased focus on cybersecurity, and the integration of artificial intelligence are anticipated to shape the industry's future landscape.

"Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscribers will reach 7.3 million by 2030, while the fixed broadband market will continue to increase fibre penetration into more households, with over 80% of households on plans over 300Mbps. The telecommunications industry is expected to maintain revenue growth momentum, with an average growth rate of 2% from 2023 to 2030," says Landry Fevre, Director of Idem Est Research & Advisory.

Idem Est Research and Advisory's report on the New Zealand telecom market serves as a valuable resource for industry stakeholders, investors, and policymakers looking to gain a comprehensive understanding of the sector. The analysis highlights the immense potential and opportunities for both local and international players to contribute to the development and innovation of the telecom industry in New Zealand.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS AUSTRALIA TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:
2degrees, Brookfield, Crown Infrastructure Partner, Connexa, Crown Fibre Holding, Chorus, Enable Networks, Infratil, Mercury, Northpower, One NZ, Telecom NZ, Snap, Spark, TelstraClear, Trustpower, Tuatahi First Fibre, Ultra-Fast Fibre, Vocus, Vodafone, WEL Networks

Download the full report: https://idemest.com/reports/new-zealand-telecoms-report-mobile-broadband-market-industry-analysis/

New Zealand Telecoms Industry Report - TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Key Statistics
1.1 New Zealand's Population
1.2 New Zealand's Economy
1.3 New Zealand's GDP
2 Overall Telecommunications Market, 2016-2030
2.1 Market Overview
2.2 Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2016-2022
2.3 Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2022-2030
2.4 Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2016-2030
2.4.1 Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2016-2022
2.4.2 Capex to Revenue Benchmark
2.4.3 Capex to GDP Benchmark
2.4.4 Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2022-2030
3 Telecommunications Operators Profile
3.1 Spark New Zealand Profile
3.1.1 Spark Revenue EBITDA and Capex Mix
3.2 ONE NEW Zealand Profile
3.2.1 One NZ Revenue EBITDA and Capex Mix
3.3 2Degrees
3.3.1 2degrees Revenue EBITDA and Capex Mix
3.3.2 Vocus New Zealand (Historical)
3.4 Chorus Profile
3.4.1 Chorus Revenue, EBITDA & Capex Mix
3.5 Other Players Profile
3.5.1 Mercury (Formerly Trustpower)
4 Mobile market
4.1 NEW Zealand Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2016-2030
4.1.1 New Zealand Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2016-2022
4.1.2 New Zealand Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2016-2022
4.1.3 New Zealand Smartphone Share, 2023
4.1.4 New Zealand Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
4.1.5 New Zealand Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2022-2030
4.2 New Zealand Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2016-2030
4.2.1 Historical Mobile Revenue, 2016-2022
4.2.1 New Zealand Mobile Revenue Market Share, 2016-2022
4.2.2 Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2016-2022
4.2.3 New Zealand Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2022-2030
4.3 Mobile Coverage
4.4 Spectrum Holdings
4.4.1 Historical of Spectrum Auctions and Costs
4.4.2 5G Spectrum Allocations in 2022
4.4.3 Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
4.4.1 Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
4.5 Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
4.6 Mobile Speed Tests
4.7 Internet of Things (IoT)
5 Broadband Market
5.1 New Zealand Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2016-2022
5.2 New Zealand Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
6 Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
6.1 Fixed Digital Infrastructure
6.1.1 The Ultra-Fast Broadband (UFB)
6.1.2 Submarine Cables
7 New Zealand Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape
7.1 Small Tightly Held Tower Market
7.1.1 New Zealand Telecom Towers Background
7.2 New Zealand Telecom Towers Market Forecast
7.2.1 New Zealand Telecom Towers Forecast, 2022-2030
7.2.2 Regulatory Considerations
7.3 Connexa
7.3.1 Connexa Towers Key Performance Indicators
7.4 Vodafone TowerCo
7.4.1 Vodafone TowerCo Towers Key Performance Indicators
7.5 Tower Density Benchmark
7.6 Telco Infrastructure Comparative
8 Thematics / Opportunities
8.1 Consolidation Opportunities
8.2 Going for Scope
8.3 New Telecoms Operating Model
8.3.1 The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
8.4 5G Developments
8.4.1 5G Overview
8.4.2 5G - Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
8.4.3 5G OpenRAN
8.4.4 Beyond 5G and Towards 6G
9 Telco Transaction Database
10 Methodology
11 Copyright Notice

 
Figure 1 - Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in New Zealand
Figure 2 -Revenue Profile Historical Mix (NZD million), 2016 - 2022
Figure 3 -EBITDA Profile Historical Mix (NZD million), 2016 - 2022
Figure 4 - Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2022
Figure 5 - Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2022
Figure 6 - Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share, 2022
Figure 7 - Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (NZD bn), 2022-2030
Figure 8 - Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2016-2022
Figure 9 - Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2016-2022
Figure 10 - Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2030
Figure 11 - Spark Service Revenue Mix, 2016-2022
Figure 12 - Spark Historical Revenue Mix, 2016 - 2022 (NZD million)
Figure 13 - One NZ Revenue Mix, 2016-2022
Figure 14 - One NZ Historical Revenue Mix, 2016 - 2022 (NZD million)
Figure 15 - 2degrees Revenue and EBITDA, 2016-2022 (NZD million)
Figure 16 - Chorus Service Revenue Mix, 2016-2022
Figure 17 - Chorus Historical Revenue Mix, 2016 - 2022 (NZD m)
Figure 18 - New Zealand Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 19 - New Zealand Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 20 - Mobile Net Adds (000's) Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 21 - New Zealand Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 22 - Mobile Subscribers by Generation Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 23 - New Zealand Mobile Revenue Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 24 - Mobile Subscribers ARPU (NZD), 2016-2030
Figure 25 - New Zealand Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 26 - Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Select Asia-Pacific Countries, 2022
Figure 27 -Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2022
Figure 28 - Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2022
Figure 29 - Spectrum available for IoT in New Zealand
Figure 30 - New Zealand Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 31 - New Zealand Net-Adds (000's) by Operators, 2016-2022
Figure 32 - UFB Services by Speed
Figure 33 - New Zealand Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 34 - New Zealand Tower Market Share, 2023
Figure 35 - New Zealand Telecom Towers Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 36 - Capita per Tower, 2022
Figure 37 - Telecoms Providers' EV/EBITDA Ranges
Figure 38 - 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 39 - Effect of Frequency on Range
Figure 40 - 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
Figure 41 - Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
Figure 42 - Telecom Infra Project - OpenRAN Vision

 
Table 1 - New Zealand - Key Statistics
Table 2 - Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators
Table 3 - Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2022-2030
Table 4 - Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2016-2022
Table 5 - Total Capex Spending Market Revenue, 2022-2030
Table 5 - Historical Spark Service Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2016-2022
Table 6 - One NZ Service Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2016-2022
Table 7 - 2degrees Service Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2016-2022
Table 10 - Historical Vocus Service Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2015-2021
Table 8 - Chorus Wholesale UFB Pricing and Speeds
Table 9 - Historical Chorus Service Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2016-2022
Table 11 - New Zealand Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2016-2022
Table 12 - New Zealand Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 13 - Australia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 14 - Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2016-2022
Table 15 - Historical Mobile ARPU, 2016-2022
Table 16 - New Zealand Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 17 - Historical Spectrum Auctions and Costs (NZD)
Table 18 - Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (MHz)
Table 19 - Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2016-2022
Table 20 - Historical Broadband Monthly ARPU, 2016-2022
Table 21 - New Zealand Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 22 - International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in New Zealand
Table 23 - New Zealand Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2023
Table 24 - Australia Telecom Towers Indicative Tower Leasing Annual Fees
Table 25 - New Zealand Telecom Towers and Rooftops, Tower per Capita, 2022-2030
Table 26 - Spark TowerCo Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2023
Table 27 - Vodafone TowerCo Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2023
Table 28 - Spark, Vodafone, Vocus and Chorus Telco Infrastructure Landscape
Table 29 - Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
Table 30 - Telco Transaction Database, 2001-2023

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS INDONESIA TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:
2degrees, Brookfield, Crown Infrastructure Partner, Connexa, Crown Fibre Holding, Chorus, Enable Networks, Infratil, Mercury, Northpower, One NZ, Telecom NZ, Snap, Spark, TelstraClear, Trustpower, Tuatahi First Fibre, Ultra-Fast Fibre, Vocus, Vodafone, WEL Networks

Contact Information:
For media inquiries, please contact:
Landry Fevre
Woonona Rd
Northbridge NSW 2063
Australia
landry@idemest.com
SOURCE: Idem Est Research & Advisory

About Idem Est Research Advisory
Idem Est Research and Advisory is a boutique telecommunications and digital infrastructure market research and advisory. Idem Est Research provides leading telecoms research helping our clients stay updated on the latest telecoms sector and digital infrastructure developments. The reports provide analyses of mobile and broadband markets, capital expenditure, forecasts, key telecom trends and thematic such as 5G and telecoms digital infrastructure, as well as other statistics of the telco industry.
Our independent approach allows us to place the trends and drivers fully into context and analyse the industry from different, unbiased perspectives. Alongside the facts and figures, Idem Est Research draws on three decades of experience to provide incisive commentary and analysis. This brings visibility to the business drivers, challenges, decision-making and future direction of the telecoms sector.
To learn more, visit www.idemest.com

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