Worldwide DC-DC Converter IC Forecasts: Applications, Amperages and Emerging Applications - Eleventh Edition

This is the first report to provide a quantitative forecast for the adoption of PwrSiP and PwrSoC (power supply in package and power supply on chip) products. During the forecast period of 2011 to 2016, this emerging segment will grow rapidly to become a significant revenue opportunity. In addition, this unique report identifies several other important trends in this market such as the continued, rapid adoption of digital power technologies, the continued growth in market share for switching regulator ICs at the expense of both LDOs (low-drop-out regulators) and charge-pump designs, and more.
Changes are coming to the worldwide dc-dc converter IC market, driven by new designs, new technologies and shifts in existing markets that are expected to significantly alter the converter IC landscape. This report concludes that the worldwide dc-dc converter IC market will grow from nearly 20 billion units in 2011 to just under 32 billion units in 2016, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7%. This is tremendous growth, considering the world is just coming out of a major economic recession. Power-Supply-in-Package (PSiP), Power-Supply-on-Chip (PwrSoC) and digital control ICs are leading the “new” technologies; while the existing switching regulator and high-amperage markets will experience increased growth.
Leading the changes are the adoption of PSiP and PwrSoC. PSiP is actually in the forefront of this market, and it could be the “advance guard” that eventually leads to PwrSoC adoption. By 2016, the PSiP/PwrSoC market is expected to see sales of over 100 million units, since PSiP is already commercially available and becoming more competitive. During the forecast period, this segment will grow rapidly to become a significant revenue opportunity, since average selling prices will be higher than existing products.
PSiP and PwrSoC are expected to see greater market penetration over the forecast period for another reason, as well. PwrSoC has traditionally been defined as a complete switch-mode dc-dc converter solution integrated onto a single piece of silicon; and PSiP has been defined as a highly integrated “micro-module,” usually based on multi-chip co-packaging technology. Both of these definitions assume the integration of components including, for example, magnetics and capacitors. This misses the purpose of such integration, however.

Darnell Group defines these technologies based on the functions that the components perform. For example, an isolation barrier is typical in many applications, but this function may be performed with multiple technologies. In other words, there are alternatives to these components for accomplishing isolation barrier, energy storage, filtering and other functions. PwrSoC is currently less efficient and costs more than PSiP, although companies are working on those problems and have roadmaps for integrated (not co-packaged) magnetics. This will be one of the most important markets to watch over the next few years.

Even though analog controller ICs still represent the largest portion of the worldwide dc-dc controller IC market, digital ICs are “catching up” and many devices simply incorporate them without question. For example, power management ICs (PMICs) and PSiP/PwrSoC are digital IC products, and when they are included in the digital controller IC segment, they represent 61% of the combined market in 2011. This share is expected to increase to 76% of the market by 2016, driven in part by the growing PMIC and PSiP/PwrSoC markets.

Multi-phase designs have always been a good application for digital control, so they already have a high digital market penetration rate. Single-phase devices are expected to show increasing use of digital control over the forecast period, however. Opportunities for multi-phase embedded dc-dc are spread across communications, computer, industrial and military/aerospace applications.

The adoption of new power architectures, such as the Central Control Architecture (CCA), is another factor driving the consumption of IC-based solutions in place of modules. As a result, the higher amperage levels are seeing higher growth rates and relatively strong unit sales. Switching Regulators are projected to be the largest topology market (and an increasing share) of the 1A and Above amperage segments. LDOs hold the largest share below 1A, but they will be less than 50% of the higher amperage segments between 2011 and 2016.
As a result of these dynamics, Switching Regulator ICs are taking an increasing share from the LDO segment, which has traditionally been the largest of the converter/regulator IC markets. In 2011, Switching Regulators for portable devices will represent 38% of the market, and this share will grow to just under 44% of the market by 2016.

PMICs are another fast-growing market. These products integrate the primary power functions in portable devices into a single chip. The chips typically integrate a battery charger, one or more buck converters and in many cases, multiple LDOs to address the various power functions. PMICs are considered one of the fastest-growing semiconductor market segments. The design paradigm includes both analog and system-on-chip solutions using digital techniques.

Although most companies making PMICs are targeting “next generation” mobile phones, there are other applications that could provide more opportunities going forward. As a future technology, PMICs are expected to grow in usage as portable devices with multiple, advanced functions become more commonplace.

Dc-dc converter ICs are not expected to replace dc-dc modules, although packaging trends point to “hybrid” solutions that could be defined either way. The proliferation of small, portable devices that require increasingly complex powering solutions will ensure that new designs in packaging continue to appear. This also extends to non-portable systems that employ increasing numbers of voltage rails.

Because the powering needs (and challenges) of portable devices are different from those of non-portable equipment, this report discusses these two application markets separately. The top-level application segments – Communications, Computers, Consumer, Industrial, Medical, and Military/Aerospace – are the same, but each segment is broken out differently to account for the differing power demands of portable versus non-portable devices.

This report contains 19 tables and 35 figures that illustrate in detail the worldwide unit market growth and the market share shifts that are projected to occur between 2011 and 2016. When applicable, company developments are highlighted to show the trends in both the applications and the converter IC products. The forecasts include cross-comparisons to identify the segment dynamics and shifts.

Even coming out of the recession, the long-term prospects for dc-dc converter IC makers is optimistic, although the technical challenges mean changes are coming to the industry. This report highlights the current landscape and gives an analysis of where those changes are likely to occur – and when.

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