Semi-Autonomous & Autonomous Bus Market by Level of Automation, Propulsion - Global Forecast to 2030

The global Semi-Autonomous Bus Market size is projected to reach 71,682 units by 2025, from an estimated 23,613 units in 2020, at a CAGR of 24.9%. The base year for the report is 2019, and the forecast period is from 2020 to 2025. The semi-autonomous bus sector has witnessed rapid evolution as governments across the world are regulating advanced safety features such as AEB and BSD, and OEMs are offering buses with modern driver-assist features.

The global autonomous bus market size is projected to reach USD 2,773 million by 2030, from USD 791 million in 2024, at a CAGR of 23.2%. The forecast period is from 2024 to 2030. The autonomous bus technology is the evolution in the public transport industry, as it could be a viable solution to daily commuting and public transit gaps. Also, after the global pandemic of COVID-19, many OEMs and technology companies will be looking to develop small autonomous shuttles with less seating capacity to avoid crowded bus operations.

OEMs worldwide are focusing heavily on research & testing applications leading to continuous advancements in autonomous buses. For instance, in October 2019, Local Motors announced the testing of its autonomous shuttle, Olli, in California. Similarly, in May 2019, New Flyer, one of the biggest bus manufacturers in the world, started a pilot program of testing autonomous driving technology in its full-sized bus. Also, Proterra, an American electric bus maker, has been testing autonomous driving in Nevada. These initiatives are expected to provide an impetus to the growth of the global semi-autonomous and autonomous bus market.

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In the semi-autonomous bus market, by propulsion, the diesel segment is projected to dominate the industry during the forecast period in terms of volume. The rising demand for passenger safety and efficient bus transit operations would boost the sales of the diesel segment for the advanced semi-autonomous bus market during the forecast period.

Favorable government regulations for better road safety would have a positive impact on the semi-autonomous bus market. For instance, AEB and BSD are expected to be mandatory for all types of vehicles, including buses. As the infrastructure for electric buses is insufficient in many countries, OEMs will be incorporating these features in the existing diesel-operated buses. With significant sales volume across the world and OEMs introducing new safety features, the diesel segment is expected to lead the semi-autonomous bus market. Also, continuous developments are being made to improve the emission and efficiency of diesel-powered vehicles.

The semi-autonomous and autonomous bus market players are focusing on expanding their businesses in new markets across the world. Asia Pacific is one of the potential markets for semi-autonomous and autonomous buses. Economies such as China, Japan, and South Korea, have a technologically advanced automotive industry. The Chinese bus company, King Long, developed a self-driving shuttle with the autonomous platform by Baidu and started first-ever volume production of these shuttles in June 2018.

As China, Japan, and South Korea are capable of adopting such technology and produce on mass-level, the region will have a significant market share in the autonomous bus market. Apart from these testing and trials, the region is heavily dependent on buses as a public transport medium. Thus, recent developments in autonomous technologies and quick adoption of the technology would help the Asia Pacific market to grow rapidly.

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Europe presents a significant growth opportunity for the semi-autonomous bus market, as the regulations related to safety features such as AEB and BSD are expected to roll out soon. These regulations will propel the market growth for semi-autonomous buses. Moreover, the region is home to numerous tier-1 automotive component suppliers, such as Bosch, Continental, and ZF, which offer different semi-autonomous technologies and are developing some innovative ADAS features.

The region is testing autonomous driving technology on buses as well. A majority of the companies such as EasyMile, Navya, and 2getthere that are offering autonomous shuttles today are from the European region. EasyMile claims to have deployed the most number of autonomous shuttles across the world. Thus, Europe will have a significant market share in the global autonomous bus market as well.

Critical Aspects:

• Governments are focusing on regulations related to safety standards in commercial vehicles. How will this transform the overall semi-autonomous bus market?
• How will fast-paced developments in self-driving technologies change the dynamics of this market?
• The industry is focusing on different sensors and software systems. Which are the leading companies working on it, and what organic and inorganic strategies have been adopted by them?
• The shuttle segment is expected to have a significant market during the forecast. How will this transform the overall autonomous bus market?
• Analysis of competitors, including major players in this market and ecosystem. The major players are Continental (Germany) Bosch (Germany), Aptiv (UK), AB Volvo (Sweden), and Denso (Japan).

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