Impact of COVID-19 on Indian Economy Analysis, Trends, and Forecast 2019 to 2025

Coronavirus (COVID-19) is spreading with the utmost intensity in India. The country is progressing at a significant pace; however, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected the economy of the country in the past few weeks. India like China is a hugely populous country. Therefore, the community spread of coronavirus is a major concern for the country, as there will be a lack of ventilators and critical beds for a large number of patients.

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The Union Health Ministry of India has stated that there is only one isolation bed available per 84,000 Indians and one quarantine bed available per 36,000 people. Therefore, in the absence of an adequate number of isolation beds and quarantine beds, the rapidly spreading coronavirus is the foremost concern of the government. The spread of pandemic is also impacting the economy of the country.

Traditionally, India has few major industries, with which the country drives its greater part of the economy, which includes textile, agriculture, and manufacturing. According to the India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF), an estimated 283.37 million tons of food grain production recorded during 2018-2019. Milk production was estimated to around 176.3 million tons during the fiscal year 2018, whereas, the meat production was estimated to around 7.4 million tons in the same fiscal year.

In addition, the total exports of agricultural products from India grew at a CAGR of 16.45% during 2010-2018. The country fulfils the food demand for various countries, including Russia, the US, and China. However, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the agricultural sector of the country. According to the Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC), the demand for perishable food products has declined as the bulk demand from hotels and railways has stopped.

Based on industry classification, the Indian economy is classified into automobile, food & beverage, chemical, oil & gas, aviation, textile, retail, hospitality, and others. A major slowdown in the aviation and hospitality industry has been reported due to the effect of COVID-19 in the past few weeks. On March 18, 2020, India banned the landing of all domestic as well as international flights. This has subsequently affected the shares of these two industries. India’s largest airlines, Spice Jet is among the worst-hit airlines as the pandemic ravages the demand for travel, whereas, IndiGo has seen a decline of 15%-20% in its daily bookings in the past few days.

In addition, the hospitality sector entirely depends on trade, tourism, and travel for its sustenance. The ban on travel has negatively impacted the hospitality sector, leading to a massive spate of cancellations in the past few weeks. The Federation of Associations in Indian Tourism and Hospitality (FAITH) has requested the government to look into the matter as the tourism industry of India is in dire straits due to a decline in revenues and is running out of working capital during the COVID-19 pandemic. The association further stated that possibly around 70% of the total workforce of the tourism industry could get unemployed at the end of the outbreak.

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Verticals Affected Most
• Automobile
• Food & Beverage
• Chemical
• Oil & Gas
• Aviation
• Textile
• Retail
• Hospitality
• Others

Company Profiles
• Aditya Birla Group
• Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd.
• Hero Motocorp Ltd.
• Indian Oil Corp. Ltd.
• InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. (IndiGo)
• ITC Ltd.
• Mahindra Group
• Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.
• Reliance Industries Ltd.
• Tata Group
• Oil and Natural Gas Corp.
• Larsen & Toubro Ltd.

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