Biofuels Market | Expected to reach $153.8 billion by 2024

The global liquid biofuels market should reach $153.8 billion by 2024 from $136.2 billion in 2019 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.2% for the forecast period of 2019 to 2024.

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Biofuel is a solid, liquid, or gaseous fuel derived from recently dead biological material as distinguished from fossil fuels derived from long dead biological material. Theoretically, biofuels can be produced from any biological carbon source; however, the most common sources are photosynthetic plants. Currently, the most common biofuels are liquid fuels used primarily in transportation applications. In this report, the term biofuels will be used in this context.

In world regions outside of North America, the biofuels market was worth about REDACTED in 2018 and REDACTED in 2019. The market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of REDACTED to REDACTED in 2024, with most of the growth coming from biodiesel and advanced biofuels such as cellulosic ethanol. The greatest market growth will take place in a few EU member states, Asia-Pacific and South America. The Africa and Middle East regions will remain relatively under-developed due to a lack of investment.

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There are a number of reasons for the projected relatively gradual increase in biofuels consumption in most major markets. Biofuels consumption is to a large extent policy-driven, i.e., the result of various government mandates and incentives. A number of government policy objectives provide the motivation for these mandates and incentives, including increasing energy security and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Most major biofuel consuming nations already have a policy framework for biofuels in place, so new regulations are unlikely to lead to major increases in biofuels consumption in the near to mid-term.

The next most important market driver for biofuels is the price of oil. The price of benchmark Brent crude oil, which at times has been as high as $145 per barrel, was slightly over $71 in 2018 and is expected to decline still further in the next few years.

Feedstock costs are another major influence on the market for biofuels. Feedstocks prices can swing wildly from high to low, disrupting farmers' planting plans, the cost of manufacturing biofuels, and the profitability of ethanol and biodiesel. For example, U.S. corn production has been at record high levels in recent years, which has kept corn prices generally stable in the $3.40 and $4.00 per bushel range, and increased the profitability of U.S. ethanol production. U.S. corn prices increased somewhat in 2019, but it is difficult to draw any conclusions about a long-term trend that might put a damper on ethanol production.

A more serious consequence of increased biofuel demand is the impact on world food and feed prices. The global rise in population, and greater percentage of food crops used to manufacture biofuels, has been criticized for diverting food away from the human food chain, leading to food shortages and price rises. Land and water use are other challenges. The desire to diversity away from biofuel feedstocks that compete with other human needs, of course has been the driver behind the development of so-called advanced biofuels such as cellulosic ethanol and algal biodiesel. However, the technological obstacles to commercializing these advanced biofuels have proven greater than some proponents once envisioned.

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