Troubled foreign banks to destroy value in fire sale of Polish banking assets

“Troubled foreign banks will destroy value in fire sale of Polish banking assets. This, however, will create a unique opportunity for local investors to boost their share in the banking sector dominated by foreigners.” said Marcin Mazurek, director of Intelace Research, during a presentation of Intelace’s latest report, Banking Market in Poland 2011–2013.

Foreign investors controlled 66.3% of banking assets in Poland as of 1H 2011. This ratio hit a record 70.6% in 2007, but since then it has dropped. The largest bank controlled by local capital is PKO Bank Polski, which currently holds a 14.5% market share in the commercial bank segment.
The pace of ownership changes in the banking sector in Poland is accelerating. In 2010, BZ WBK was acquired by Banco Santander, Polbank EFG was sold to Raiffeisen Bank, and a few smaller players changed hands as well. At present, the sales of Millennium, Kredyt Bank, DnB Nord, and DZ bank are underway and are expected to be completed in 4Q11/1Q12. The speculation is that BNP Paribas, Banca Intesa, Unicredit, Santander, and the local leader PKO BP are among possible bidders. Moreover, some more-exotic players, including the Russian Sberbank and large Chinese banks, are rumoured to be studying the market. The withdrawal of troubled foreign banks will create a clear opportunity for local players, in particular PKO BP and Getin Holding.
Future outlook for the Polish banking market: In the base-case scenario, Intelace Research sees a moderate growth in key banking volumes through 2013. The persisting and elevated level of unemployment and the population’s stagnating real income will limit the growth of retail deposits and will also be a barrier to faster retail lending expansion. In the corporate segment, Intelace expects the current acceleration in lending to fade due to increasing uncertainty in the global economy that is likely to impact the corporate sector’s investment demand. As far as bank profitability is concerned, a moderate increase in revenues due to growing volumes but a stabilization of profits due to higher costs could be expected. Obvious risks to the future profitability of banks are: growing operating expenses, squeezes on margins, and possible rebounds in nonperforming loans.

For more information on recent developments in Polish banking sector, please refer to the publication "Banking Market in Poland 2011-2013, update 1H2011" available at: http://www.intelace.com/publications.html

ABOUT THE REPORT
“Banking Market in Poland 2011-2013, edition 1H11” is the latest update of our comprehensive publication on the banking sector in Poland. It describes the present market structure and recent trends in the market and also provides short-term estimates of key banking volumes for the years 2011 through 2013.
Compared to the 2010 edition, it has been upgraded with new analyses and now contains 128 pages. When preparing this report, Intelace Research responded to feedback received from its clients and incorporated several improvements that make this new issue even more reader-friendly and informative.

ABOUT INTELACE RESEARCH
Intelace Research is an independent consulting company that focuses on the financial markets in Central and Eastern Europe. Intelace Research specializes in management consulting and custom research services, including market entry strategy, product launch, performance and benchmarking analysis.

During 2005-2011, Intelace Research provided its products and services to more than 50 clients, including major CEE banks and several "The Banker" top world banks. To learn more about the company, visit Intelace Research’s webpage: www.intelace.com .

Intelace Research
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02-791 Warszawa, POLAND

Marcin Mazurek - Director

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web: www.intelace.com
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This release was published on openPR.