UK Mortgage Market 2022: Future Opportunities and Forecasts - Al Rayan Bank, Secure Trust Bank, Vida Homeloans and Masthaven, Virgin Money
The mortgage market has recovered well since the financial crisis, often producing double-digit growth each year. However, rising economic uncertainties will dampen the prospects for future growth over the coming years. During the forecast period (2018-22), gross advances are expected to record a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2%, reaching ?338bn by the end of the forecast period versus a historic five-year CAGR of 7.6% from 2013 to 2017. On the supply side, an increased supply of new homes, stamp duty relief for first-time buyers, and the extension of the Help to Buy equity loan scheme will improve matters for first-time buyers. More withdrawals in the buy-to-let sector by landlords are expected over the next two years, increasing the supply of properties available to both existing homeowners and first-time buyers.
Political uncertainty arising from the Brexit negotiations has weighed on economic growth, and is likely to continue to do so over the forecast period. But high levels of employment, rising wages, and slower private rental growth - combined with significant government intervention in the housing market - will ensure moderate growth over the forecast period.
Major Key Players:
Al Rayan Bank, Secure Trust Bank, Vida Homeloans and Masthaven, Virgin Money
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This report offers five-year gross lending forecasts for residential and niche mortgages up to 2022, along with a detailed examination of the various supply-side factors that will determine the market outlook. It offers insight
- The Right to Buy sector will be supported by the scheme's extension to housing association tenants and the government's lifting of the Housing Revenue Account cap, enabling local authorities to increase borrowing to invest in new housing stock.
- Buy-to-let lenders are adapting to margin compression by including non-rental income in affordability assessments. As mortgage interest tax relief is removed, demand for top-slicing products will increase.
- The number of equity release products is growing rapidly to meet consumer demand. Prospects for further growth are strong, with several years' worth of property price rises leaving borrowers with plenty of capital value to withdraw.
- The removal of restrictive criteria and increased consumer awareness, combined with substantial government funding, will see the shared ownership sector grow significantly over the forecast period.
- The key macroeconomic, regulatory, and other factors that will drive the supply of mortgages over the next five years.
- The outlook for niche sectors, including buy-to-let, equity release, shared ownership, shared equity, Right to Buy, Sharia-compliant, and self-build.
Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1. Market summary
1.2. Key findings
2. THE MORTGAGE MARKET WITNESSED MODERATE GROWTH IN 2017
2.1. Supply-side factors will increase the pool of funds available for lending
2.1.1. Regulatory changes have dampened the appeal of the buy-to-let sector
2.1.2. First-time buyer numbers continue to grow as a result of government support
3. NICHE MORTGAGES WILL EXPERIENCE VARYING FORTUNES
3.1. Government intervention has reigned in buy-to-let lending
3.2. Shared equity activity will continue to grow, but at a slower rate
3.3. Shared ownership has been boosted by regulatory changes
3.4. Right to Buy will grow moderately over the next few years
3.5. Equity release will see double-digit growth throughout the forecast period
3.6. Self-build lending is unlikely to meet demand
3.7. Market volatility as a result of the UK's withdrawal from the EU could present opportunities for the secured lending market
3.8. Professional and graduate mortgages will continue to flatline
3.9. The appeal of Islamic home finance is broadening
4. PRODUCT VARIATIONS
4.1. Offset mortgage lending will decline
4.2. Sterling depreciation as a result of Brexit will buttress the large-value mortgage lending sector
4.3. Near-prime lending is expected to remain strong
5.1. Abbreviations and acronyms
5.2.1. BoE base rate
5.2.2. Gross advances
5.4. Secondary sources
5.5. Further reading
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