Epic Research Daily Agri Commodity Report Of 16 July 2018

Soyabean planting is nearing completion in the key growing areas of Central India aided by a surge in rains over the past week. As on July 6, Soyabean was planted on around 5.1 million hectares - about 4% lower than the corresponding period last year. Except for Karnataka, all other Soyabean growing States had reported a lower acreage as on July 6 when compared to last year. However, industry and the government expect Soyabean acreage in the ongoing kharif season to be higher by 5-15 per cent over last year’s 10.5 million hectares.

Abundant rain in many of the Coconut growing areas across South India is expected to bring cheer to the Coconut growers with a decent harvest season next year, resulting in increased production and price stabilisation. In 2018, the sector posted a comfortable production, due to widespread rains after a drought-like condition in 2016-17. The trend of rising production is likely to continue next year as well, with heavy spells being experienced in many production centres. Coconut Development Board data put the production in 2016-17 at 23,904 million nuts, which has gone up to 24,378 million nuts in 2017-18. However, the sector expects a 5-10 per cent growth in the 2018-19 crop season in the wake of several positive factors.

India’s retail inflation grew 5% in June, a five-month high, from May’s 4.87% on the back of rising fuel prices, data released by statistics office showed. Retail inflation, measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI), had fallen to 1.46% in June 2017. CPI is the main price gauge that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) tracks. June’s data is an indication that inflation is inching towards the apex bank’s upper tolerance level of 6%. Consumer food price inflation, a metric to gauge changes in monthly kitchen costs, growth slowed to 2.91% in June from 3.10% in May, but still increased from (-)2.12% in June 2017.

Economic News

Technically MCX Cotton is getting support at 22614 and below same could see a test of 22467 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 22904, a move above could see prices testing 23047. Cotton on MCX settled up by 0.22% at 22760 amid anticipation of lower production from major producing belts due to reduction in crop acreage. However, upside seen limited amid higher crop estimated by FAS India and increased cotton area as monsoon rains have now covered entire country. Cotton acreage till last week was down by 24% on year to 54.60 lakh hac, according to the farm ministry data. In Maharashtra, the largest producer, the area under the crop was down 10.3% on year at 19.6 lakh ha as on last week while acreage in Gujarat, another major grower, was down 61.1% on year at 492,900 ha due to deficient rains. However, market participants are expecting higher imports in coming months as government increase minimum support prices for cotton by 26-28%. MSP of cotton (MS) has been raised to Rs 5,150 from Rs 4,020 and that of cotton (LS) to Rs 5,450 from Rs 4,320 per quintal.

Now MCX Cardamom is getting support at 1021.6 and below same could see a test of 1005.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1047.3, a move above could see prices testing 1056.9. Cardamom on MCX settled up by 2.69% at 1037.7 as there are fears of damage to standing crops and delay in new crop supplies. Rains have also impacted the new crops and supplies from the fresh crop would get momentum by the third week of this month, though scattered supplies have begun to pour in some of the auction centres. Stockists did not make buying on hopes of higher output and early commencement of new crop supplies. Heavy monsoon rainfall that has caused damage to plantation thereby resulting in crop loss and downward revision of earlier made higher crop estimates.

Trading Recommendations

SELL CORIANDER JUL BELOW 4600 TARGET 4580/4560/4540 SL 4630
BUY TURMERIC JUL ABOVE 6970 TARGET 7000/7030/7060 SL 6930
SELL GUARGUM5 JUL BELOW 8340 TARGET 8300/8260/8220 SL 8390

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This release was published on openPR.