Epic Research Daily Agri Commodity Report Of 21 June 2018

Cardamom showed firmness in spot demand after prevailing weather conditions in the producing centres of Kerala are favourable. An anticipated delay in commencement of new crop supplies also supporting the prices. Earlier, there were reports that excessive rains in some part of Idduki district of Kerala hit the cardamom plants.However, situation has improved and new crop arrivals may begin early, which may weigh on prices in the coming week. There has been raining in the producing centres of Kerala and present weather is conducive to the coming crop.

As per latest report of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the condition of the 2018 U.S. corn crop improved 1% last week to 78% rated good to excellent. Seven states indicated that the corn condition improved last week, 7 states indicated that the corn condition declined last week, and 4 states were unchanged. Most of the improvements were found in the central and northern Corn Belt while most of the declines were found in the southern locations. The condition of the 2018 U.S. soybean crop declined 1% last week to 73% rated good to excellent.

There has been a panic selling on cotton post the tariff announcement by both US and China. China is one of the largest import destinations of US cotton; with the imposition of tariff a massive sell off in the price is noticed estimating sharp drop in the US exports in the next season. Local mandis across the country reported daily arrivals at an average of 40,000 bales per day this week. Arrivals are expected to drop further below 40,000 bales in the next week. At demand front, millers are going for aggressive buying to avoid any possibilities of supply shortage as still four months has to go to end this current marketing year. The domestic cotton exporters have already signed contracts to ship 85,000 tons of their new season harvest to China as the world's biggest consumer of the fibre looks to raise its imports in the next crop year.

Economic News

Tamil Nadu based sugar mills , seeking an exemption from the Centre’s export commitment of 20 lakh tonnes in the current year, will now approach it for a moratorium on their loans, citing poor sugarcane crushing seasons in the past two years. Palani G Periyasamy, chairman of South India Sugar Mills Association - Tamil Nadu, said, “SISMA is planning to go as a delegation and meet the officials concerned at the Centre in the first week of July to impress upon them the real situation. The Centre should enable Tamil Nadu factories to reschedule the loans, and farmer subsidies being given to other state farmers should come to Tamil Nadu.” According to millers, cane arrears to the farmers, or the fair and remunerative price (FRP), no stands at over ₹22,000 crore nationally. Following a fall in price of sugar in the last few months because of record harvests and excess domestic sugar supply, arrears to farmers from sugar mills have increased.

Technically Jeera market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.5% to settled at 5175 while prices up 175 rupees. Now NCDEX Jeera is getting support at 16530 and below same could see a test of 16365 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 16820, a move above could see prices testing 16945. Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 1.06% at 16700 on short covering after prices remained under pressure on robust demand from the domestic and export market.Export demand for Indian jeera is expected to be strong in the current season owing to lower supplies from Turkey and Syria. A trade body-The Federation of Indian Spices Stakeholders (FISS) - projected India's 2017-18 jeera output at 6.92 million bags up 19% on year on the back of higher acreage and favourable weather. India exported 104,260 ton jeera during April-October 2017 up from 91,024 ton a year ago due to increased demand from China and Bangladesh.Mandi sources maintained that export enquiries have been good as India is the only jeera supplier to the world market currently.

Trading Recommendations

BUY CORIANDER JUL ABOVE 4580 TARGET 4600/4620/4640 SL 4550
BUY TURMERIC JUL ABOVE 7340 TARGET 7370/7400/7430 SL 7300
BUY GUARGUM5 JUL ABOVE 7690 TARGET 7730/7770/7810 SL 7640

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