Epic Research Daily Agri Commodity Report Of 11 May 2018

Spices Board has tightened rules of sampling for Jeera (Cumin) exports after receiving several representations from importing countries on adulteration and inferior quality shipments from Gujarat. Surveillance sampling and testing conducted by the Board found adulteration in a cumin seed export consignment of 12.5 MTs in a Gujarat-based Exporting Unit. Quality Evaluation Laboratory of the Board at Kandla (Gujarat) had reported the presence of 23.33% extraneous matter against maximum limit of 3% in the sample taken from the lot, which was a clear indication of adulteration.

Palm Oil inventories in Malaysia fell to a seven-month low at end-April, declining for a fourth straight month as exports and domestic consumption outpaced production, official data showed. End-stocks in Malaysia, the world's second largest palm oil producer, fell 6.4% to 2.17 million tonnes, the lowest level since September, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reported. The MPOB data showed April output dipped 1 percent to 1.56 million tonnes from a month earlier, but was still the highest April level since 2015.

On the back of improved demand in the international market, especially from Iran and transference of higher Paddy prices over the last two procurement seasons, Indian Basmati Rice exports are expected to post strong growth in FY18 and FY19. According to an ICRA note, Indian Basmati Rice exports have witnessed a strong improvement in the current fiscal with 22 percent growth in value in 9MFY18 over the previous fiscal after having been on the downward trajectory over FY15 to FY17. This export growth has been fuelled by a 23 percent surge in average realizations (Rs64,594/MT in 9MFY18 as against Rs53,985/MT in FY17) and it is estimated that Basmati Rice exports may cross Rs26,000cr for FY18 (growth of 20% over last fiscal) and Rs28,000cr for FY19.

Economic News

Technically Turmeric market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.93% to settled at 16675 while prices down 126 rupees. Now Turmeric is getting support at 7318 and below same could see a test of 7228 levels and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7566, a move above could see prices testing 7724. Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by 1.67% at 7408 on profit booking as pressure seen amid cues of IMD's normal monsoon forecast. Normal monsoon forecast by IMD is deemed to be good for crop acreage as it will prompt the farmers to decide on cultivation of turmeric despite not great returns in the current crop season. However, price downfall is likely to be cushioned on expectations of good demand in near-term amid slowdown in supplies at the spot markets. Supplies at the spot market are gradually declining as lean season is approaching. AP MARKFED announced to sell 1,761 ton of turmeric of finger and bulb varieties lying in the godowns of Nandyal (District Kurnool) and Vadlamudi through e-auction.

Technically Mustard Seed market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.41% to settled at 110430 while prices up 22 rupees. Now Rmseed is getting support at 3890 and below same could see a test of 3869 levels and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3930, a move above could see prices testing 3949. Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled up by 0.57% at 3912 tracking firmness in spot demand supported by higher meal exports during the month of April. According to SEA latest export report, exports of mustard meal is sharply increased by 173% on year to nearly 97,891 tons, due to higher demand from South Korea. Exports have been 209% higher at 6.64 lt for the FY 2017/18 compared to previous year’s export volume of 2.14 lt. However, it is still trading at 7 month low on concern over sufficient stocks with the traders and oil mills.

Trading Recommendations

SELL CORIANDER MAY BELOW 4740 TARGET 4710/4670/4620 SL 4790
BUY TMC MAY ABOVE 7390 TARGET 7420/7460/7510 SL 7340
SELL GUARGUM5 MAY BELOW 8160 TARGET 8130/8090/8040 SL 8210

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