Epic Research Daily Agri Commodity Report Of 3 May 2018

Based on the representation of the Coffee Board, the Karnataka government has issued a notification declaring the areas comprising Kodagu, Chikkamagalur and Hassan districts to be ‘pest-affected areas’ for a period of five years from April 12, 2018. This may lead to adverse affect on state's Coffee production and supply in the coming months. The state government’s decision is based on recommendations of the Central Coffee Research Institute (CCRI), Coffee Board, which has found Coffee plantations to be extensively affected by a resilient pest called Coffee White Stem Borer (CWSB). This pest, according to CCRI, is a very tough one to handle because once it gains entry into the Coffee plant stem, it becomes very difficult to control it through any plant protection sprays.

World Cotton prices have remained high in 2017/18 at an average of 84.63 cents per pound thus far over the course of the season. Higher prices are expected to impact planting decisions to expand area under Cotton for the 2018/19 season, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) said in its latest report. World area under Cotton has averaged 32.4 million hectares over the last ten years and is projected to grow moderately during the next season.

The government has approved a production subsidy of Rs 5.5 per quintal for Sugarcane farmers to help cash-starved millers clear cane arrears that have surged to about Rs 20,000 crore due to sharp fall in Sugar prices on record production. The Cabinet Committee of Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a production-linked subsidy of Rs 55 per tonne (Rs 5.5 per quintal) for cane farmers, sources said. The industry is facing huge losses due to fall in ex-mill Sugar prices. The subsidy amount could be Rs 1,500-1,600 crore on the basis of sugarcane crushed by the mills in the current 2017-18 marketing year (October-September), industry body Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said.

Economic News

Technically Cotton market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.44% to settled at 8856 while prices up 70 rupees. Now MCX Cotton is getting support at 20580 and below same could see a test of 20370 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 20930, a move above could see prices testing 21070. Cotton on MCX settled up by 0.34% at 20790 due to firm demand from traders and stockists at the spot market. Prices also seen support on expectation of lower global Cotton production by 69,000 tonnes to 26.23 million tonnes in 2018-19. Cotton exports from the country are still behind the last year exports volume. As per the data released by Government, country exported 34.1 lakh bales of cotton, down 6.3% during Oct-Feb period compared to 36.4 lakh bales last year same period.

Technically Jeera market is under short covering as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 3678 while prices up 40 rupees. Now NCDEX Jeera is getting support at 15550 and below same could see a test of 15385 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 15930, a move above could see prices testing 16145. Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 0.26% at 15710 amid improved export and physical demand. Daily arrivals hovered around 30,000 bags (each of 55 kg), as against the expectation of 50,000 bags considering the bumper crop. Traders maintained that with arrivals dropping and export enquiries increasing, prices are firming up. Global demand for Indian jeera has firmed up as Syria and Turkey crop will arrive only around June-July. Mandi sources maintained that export enquiries have been good as India is the only jeera supplier to the world market currently. As per data, arrivals of jeera in the country were lower by 10% at 26,500 tonnes during 1-25 April compared to 29,500 tonnes last year for the same period. As per government data, Jeera exports during first 11 months of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Feb) is 124,394 tonnes, up 13.6% compared to last year exports volume for the same period.

Trading Recommendations

SELL CORIANDER MAY BELOW 4630 TARGET 4600/4560/4510 SL 4680
BUY TMC MAY ABOVE 7430 TARGET 7460/7500/7550 SL 7410
SELL GUARGUM5 MAY BELOW 8230 TARGET 8200/8160/8110 SL 8280

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