Track Melamine Price Trend Historical and Forecasts

Executive Summary

The global Melamine price trend throughout 2025 reflected a market grappling with subdued downstream demand, easing feedstock urea costs, elevated inventories, and cautious procurement strategies. Across North America, APAC, and Europe, prices largely moved within a range-bound to bearish corridor, with only limited seasonal upticks driven by restocking or temporary supply constraints.

In Q1 2025, modest firming was observed in parts of North America and Asia due to feedstock support and early signs of demand recovery. However, as the year progressed into Q2 and Q3, oversupply conditions, weak construction-linked consumption, and competitive Asian exports weighed on regional price indices. By Q4 2025, melamine prices declined further in key markets such as the United States, South Korea, and Germany, reflecting high inventories and reduced buying urgency.

Looking ahead, the melamine price forecast suggests continued volatility within a constrained band. Seasonal restocking and maintenance outages may create temporary supply tightness, but Asian competition and soft downstream consumption are expected to cap sustained upside momentum.

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Introduction

Melamine is a nitrogen-rich organic compound primarily used in the production of laminates, wood-based panels, coatings, adhesives, molding compounds, and flame-retardant materials. Its demand profile is closely tied to the construction sector, furniture manufacturing, automotive interiors, and industrial coatings.

Feedstock urea represents the key upstream input in melamine production. Consequently, melamine price trends are highly sensitive to fluctuations in urea markets and natural gas costs. In 2025, declining urea prices across several regions played a pivotal role in shaping melamine production costs and pricing behavior.

The year was characterized by cautious procurement, elevated inventories, and restrained global trade flows, with Asian exports exerting downward pressure across Western markets.

Global Melamine Price Overview 2025

Throughout 2025, melamine prices exhibited a predominantly soft trajectory across major producing and consuming regions.

In Q1 2025, prices showed mixed movements. North America experienced gradual strengthening toward March, while APAC and Europe displayed alternating phases of mild recovery and decline.

Q2 2025 saw stabilization in several regions but persistent weakness in Asia and South America. Competitive export offers and subdued real estate activity limited sustained gains.

By Q3 2025, high inventories, operational restarts, and muted export demand amplified bearish pressure in Europe and North America, while Asia faced oversupply from resumed plant operations.

Q4 2025 concluded with further quarter-over-quarter declines in the United States, South Korea, and Germany, reflecting subdued demand, easing production costs, and constrained export outlets.

Quarterly Melamine Price Snapshot

Below is a summary of key pricing data for Q4 2025 and Q3 2025 across major regions.

Region Country Quarter Ending Avg Price (USD/MT) QoQ Change (%)

North America USA Dec 2025 1609.33 -2.94%

APAC South Korea Dec 2025 820.67 -2.22%

Europe Germany Dec 2025 1336.00 -3.165%

North America USA Sep 2025 1658.00 -1.25%

APAC South Korea Sep 2025 839.33 +1.00%

Europe Germany Sep 2025 1379.67 -4.03%

This data highlights a broadly declining trend in Q4 2025 compared with Q3 2025, particularly in Western markets.

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Regional Analysis

North America

In Q1 2025, the U.S. melamine market displayed moderate strengthening toward quarter-end. Rising urea costs and gradual improvement in downstream laminates and coatings demand supported prices. By March, melamine closed at USD 1,793/MT FOB Texas.

Q2 2025 remained largely stable, with April and May showing limited movement. Buyers advanced purchases in anticipation of announced price increases, but weak construction fundamentals capped momentum.

In Q3 2025, the Melamine Price Index declined by 1.25 percent quarter-over-quarter. High inventories, weak export demand, and cautious distributor procurement strategies weighed on the market.

By Q4 2025, the Melamine Price Index fell by 2.94 percent quarter-over-quarter. The average price reached approximately USD 1,609.33 per metric ton across Louisiana and Texas.

Key drivers behind the December decline included

Adequate domestic supply and elevated inventories
Falling urea and Henry Hub gas prices reducing production breakevens
Muted export opportunities amid Asian competition
Cautious buying from laminates and engineered wood sectors
Producers maintained regular operating rates with limited outages, ensuring volume stability but limiting pricing leverage.

APAC

The APAC melamine market followed a mixed trajectory in early 2025. In China and South Korea, Q1 movements reflected subdued demand and fluctuating feedstock costs. March prices in China closed near USD 808 per metric ton FOB Qingdao.

Q2 2025 saw continued weakness as oversupplied urea markets and sluggish real estate activity weighed on consumption. Plant restarts increased supply availability.

In Q3 2025, South Korea recorded a 1.0 percent quarter-over-quarter increase, reflecting temporary stabilization. However, inventories remained high and export activity subdued.

By Q4 2025, South Korea's Melamine Price Index fell by 2.22 percent quarter-over-quarter to an average of USD 820.67 per metric ton.

Contributing factors included

Muted downstream procurement from construction and laminates
Soft feedstock urea costs
Balanced imports and routine procurement patterns
Maintenance-related supply tightening that only marginally supported stability
Export enquiries remained limited, and Chinese capacity expansions continued to influence regional trade flows.

Europe

Europe's melamine market faced persistent demand weakness throughout 2025.

Q1 2025 opened with declining prices due to sluggish laminates and coatings consumption. Competitive Asian imports and high energy costs compounded pressure. March prices in Germany closed near USD 1,550 per metric ton FOB Hamburg.

Q2 2025 continued on a bearish trajectory, with April and May declines before a slight June uptick driven by maintenance outages and firmer urea costs.

Q3 2025 recorded a 4.03 percent quarter-over-quarter drop. Rising inventories, operational restarts, and port congestion increased local stock levels while dampening export activity.

In Q4 2025, Germany's Melamine Price Index declined by 3.165 percent quarter-over-quarter, averaging USD 1,336 per metric ton.

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December price weakness stemmed from

Adequate domestic supply and high inventories
Declining feedstock urea prices
Logistical bottlenecks at ports
Constrained export outlets
Weak construction and board-sector demand
European buyers maintained strong negotiating leverage, limiting sellers' ability to push price recovery.

Historical Quarterly Review 2025

Across all three regions, 2025 can be summarized as a year of

Initial Q1 stabilization and mild recovery
Q2 stabilization with isolated support from restocking
Q3 oversupply-driven weakness
Q4 renewed decline amid easing production costs
Feedstock urea prices consistently acted as a moderating force, limiting cost-push inflation and enabling producers to maintain competitive offers.

Production and Cost Structure Insights

Melamine production involves the high-temperature conversion of urea into melamine, releasing ammonia and carbon dioxide as byproducts. Production economics depend heavily on

Urea feedstock pricing
Natural gas costs
Energy intensity of conversion
Plant operating rates
Logistics and freight
In 2025, global urea softness reduced melamine conversion costs across regions. In North America, cheaper natural gas further eased breakevens. In APAC, oversupplied urea markets exerted downward cost pressure. In Europe, declining urea partially offset high energy and logistics costs.

This cost environment enabled producers to sustain competitive pricing despite muted demand.

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Procurement Behavior and Supply Conditions

Procurement behavior remained cautious throughout 2025. Buyers frequently relied on

Contractual volumes
Hand-to-mouth purchasing
Minimal forward cover
Inventory drawdowns
High downstream inventories in laminates, panels, and coatings limited spot demand.

On the supply side, producers maintained stable operating rates, with only periodic maintenance outages tightening availability temporarily. Asian exports, particularly from China, continued influencing global trade balances and capping Western market rallies.

Melamine Price Forecast and Procurement Outlook

The melamine price forecast indicates continued volatility but within a narrow trading range. Seasonal restocking, maintenance shutdowns, or feedstock reversals could create short-term firmness. However, structural demand weakness and competitive export offers are expected to restrain sustained price increases.

Buyers are likely to

Maintain conservative inventory strategies
Avoid aggressive forward purchasing
Monitor urea price signals closely
Leverage global arbitrage opportunities
Frequently Asked Questions

What drove the melamine price decline in Q4 2025

The decline was primarily driven by subdued downstream demand, elevated inventories, falling urea feedstock costs, and limited export opportunities.

How does urea pricing influence melamine prices

Urea is the primary feedstock for melamine production. Lower urea prices reduce conversion costs, enabling producers to offer competitive prices and limiting cost-push inflation.

Which region experienced the sharpest decline in 2025

Europe recorded significant quarterly declines, particularly in Q3 2025, when Germany saw a 4.03 percent quarter-over-quarter drop.

What is the outlook for melamine prices in 2026

Prices are expected to remain range-bound with modest volatility. Seasonal restocking and maintenance cycles may create short-term fluctuations, but structural demand recovery remains uncertain.

How ChemAnalyst Supports Buyers with Real-Time Intelligence

ChemAnalyst provides comprehensive market intelligence on melamine and over 450 global commodities. Through real-time price tracking, weekly updates, and forward-looking forecasts, ChemAnalyst empowers procurement teams to make data-driven decisions.

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