Global Base Oils Surplus Contracts 40% in November as Demand Outpaces Supply Growth

Singapore - 14 February 2026 - The global base oils market remained tight in November, with the supply-demand surplus declining nearly 40% year-on-year, according to newly published market fundamentals.

While global production increased, stronger demand growth prevented a significant build-up in surplus volumes, keeping the overall balance comparatively tight heading into year-end.

Global base oils output rose to around 2.80 million tonnes in November, marking the third monthly increase in four months. Demand meanwhile rose by more than 10% year-on-year, absorbing much of the additional supply.

The cumulative three-month surplus fell to below 900,000 tonnes - the lowest level since the first half of 2024 - contrasting with earlier concerns of a supply-build amid higher output, new capacity additions and a typical year-end seasonal slowdown.

Regional Divergence

November data showed contrasting regional trends:

• United States: Output increased following the completion of refinery maintenance programmes, but strong domestic demand absorbed more of the supply.

• Asia: Production rose for a fifth consecutive month, though much of the additional volume was absorbed by domestic and export demand.

• Europe: Production declined year-on-year for the sixth time in seven months, cushioning the impact of weak regional demand.

Why the Balance Matters

Unlike the extensive coverage of crude oil or refined products markets, base oils operate with limited transparency - despite their significant impact on oil majors and blenders. Consolidated global supply-demand balances are typically reconstructed with a much longer time lag after the fact and are rarely publicly available.

Understanding shifts in surplus levels is critical for:

• Refinery run-rate decisions
• Cargo pricing and arbitrage flows
• Lubricant blender procurement strategies
• Inventory positioning ahead of seasonal demand changes

The 40% year-on-year contraction in surplus suggests the market entered the final quarter of 2025 in a more balanced position than usual, even as new capacity additions continue to start up in Asia.

Sustained demand growth will remain key in 2026 as additional volumes come online. November's data indicates that consumption trends have so far been sufficient to absorb incremental supply, keeping balances at manageable levels.

The November global supply and supply-demand fundamentals were published by Base Oil News, an independent publication focused on the global base oils and lubricants sector.

Full market analysis is available at:
https://www.baseoilnews.com

Contact us:

Iain Pocock
Global Editor
editorial@baseoilnews.com
https://www.baseoilnews.com/

Specialties Media
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Singapore
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About Us

Base Oil News, a Specialties Media publication, provides the global base oils and lubricants industry with the actionable intelligence needed to manage market risk - particularly as pricing exposure grows in both financial and physical markets.

Through daily news, verified data, and in-depth analysis, it helps refiners, lubricant blenders, traders and end-users understand trends, capture opportunities, and plan ahead with confidence in both spot and forward markets.

The publication delivers timely reporting on supply-demand fundamentals, production trends, trade flows and structural developments across Asia, Europe, the Americas and other key regions.

By focusing on the base oils and lubricants value chain, Base Oil News enhances market transparency and supports informed decision-making in an industry where consolidated fundamentals are rarely publicly available.

This release was published on openPR.