Doubling in Six Years: The 12.4% CAGR Revolution in Permanent Magnet Motor Architecture (2025-2031)

Global Leading Market Research Publisher QYResearch announces the release of its latest report "Axial Flux Permanent Magnet Motors - Global Market Share and Ranking, Overall Sales and Demand Forecast 2026-2032".

Executive Summary: The Morphology of Efficiency
For over a century, the rotating electric machine has been synonymous with the cylinder. The radial flux motor-with its nested rotor and stator-has been the unquestioned architecture of industry, from factory floors to freeways. That dominance is now facing its most credible challenge in decades.

The axial flux permanent magnet motor (AFPMM) is not merely an incremental improvement. It represents a fundamental topological shift: torque is generated axially, along the shaft, through flat, disc-shaped air gaps. The result is a machine that is simultaneously shorter, lighter, more power-dense, and more efficient than its radial cousins. It is, in essence, the transition from the internal combustion engine's cylindrical heritage to the flat-form-factor logic of the semiconductor era.

According to QYResearch's proprietary industrial database-developed over 19 years of continuous sector surveillance and validated by 60,000+ global clients-this architectural transition is now accelerating into the commercial mainstream. The global AFPMM market, valued at US$1.09 billion in 2024, is projected to more than double to US$2.43 billion by 2031, registering a powerful CAGR of 12.4% over the 2025-2031 period. Annual production volume reached 320,000 units in 2024, utilizing 78% of an installed capacity of 410,000 units. At an average selling price of US$3,400 and industry gross margins stabilizing at 37%, the axial flux segment has firmly entered the scale-up phase, attracting both venture capital and strategic industrial acquirers.

For CEOs of automotive powertrain suppliers, chief technology officers in aerospace, and investors tracking the electrification value chain, the message is unambiguous: axial flux is transitioning from a promising alternative to a competitive necessity.

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I. Product Architecture: Why Form Factor Dictates the Future
The axial flux motor's value proposition is best understood through the lens of systems engineering, not component specification. Its defining characteristic-a short axial length and large diameter-enables integration modalities impossible for cylindrical machines.

In electric vehicles, this form factor allows motors to be integrated directly into the wheel hub (eliminating driveshafts, differentials, and half the drivetrain mass) or sandwiched between the engine and transmission in hybrid applications. YASA Limited (acquired by Mercedes-Benz in 2021 for an undisclosed sum reported in excess of €100 million) has demonstrated continuous power density exceeding 8 kW/kg, more than double that of premium radial flux units. The 2024 Mercedes-AMG C63 S E Performance, utilizing YASA technology, produces 680 hp from a propulsion system weighing less than a conventional four-cylinder engine and transmission.

In aerospace, the mass savings are even more consequential. Magnax's 2025 collaboration with a leading European eVTOL developer achieved a 30% reduction in propulsion unit mass relative to radial flux benchmarks, directly translating to extended range or increased payload. For an industry segment where every kilogram carries lifetime capitalized costs of approximately US$2,500-5,000 (source: Airbus 2024 Sustainability Report), such efficiency gains command substantial pricing premiums.

Material science is the enabler-and the constraint. Each AFPMM requires 0.8-1.5 kg of sintered NdFeB permanent magnets, representing 35-45% of raw material cost. The 2024-2025 rare earth price stabilization (neodymium-praseodymium oxide averaging US$65/kg, down from 2022 peaks of US$160/kg) has materially improved unit economics. However, supply chain concentration remains acute: >85% of NdFeB magnet production capacity resides in China, a geopolitical vulnerability explicitly noted in the U.S. Department of Energy's 2025 Critical Materials Assessment.

II. Market Dynamics: Deconstructing the 12.4% CAGR
A 12.4% six-year CAGR in a capital-intensive electromechanical sector signals structural demand pull, not cyclical recovery. Our analysis identifies three distinct and reinforcing growth engines:

1. Automotive Electrification 2.0 (Contribution: ~6.5% CAGR)
The first wave of EV adoption prioritized battery capacity and range. The second wave-now underway-is defined by efficiency optimization and weight reduction. Axial flux motors directly address the OEM imperative to reduce battery size (and thus cost) while maintaining range. Saietta Group's 2024 annual report documented a 12% improvement in WLTP range for a B-segment EV when substituting its axial flux e-axle for a comparable radial flux unit, enabled by higher continuous efficiency across the drive cycle. With major OEMs targeting 40% reduction in powertrain mass by 2030 (Stellantis Dare Forward 2030 plan), axial flux adoption is migrating from niche performance applications to volume platforms.

2. Advanced Air Mobility Certification (Contribution: ~3.0% CAGR)
The eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) sector, after the 2023-2024 capital market correction, is entering certification and limited production phases. Joby Aviation's 2025 Type Certification progress with the FAA, and similar milestones by EHang and Volocopter, are converting development programs into serial production requirements. Axial flux motors, with their superior power-to-weight and flat packaging profile, have become the de facto standard for distributed electric propulsion architectures. QYResearch estimates each eVTOL aircraft requires 6-12 AFPMM units, creating a demand vector largely absent in 2021.

3. Industrial Automation Retrofitting (Contribution: ~2.9% CAGR)
The installed base of industrial servo and spindle drives exceeds 50 million units globally, predominantly radial flux AC induction or permanent magnet designs. Energy cost inflation and carbon accounting pressure are driving systematic replacement with high-efficiency AFPMMs in continuous-duty applications. Turntide Technologies, leveraging its 2023 acquisition of EV propulsion assets, reported a 23% year-on-year increase in industrial motor retrofit orders in Q1 2025, targeting HVAC and conveyor applications.

III. Competitive Landscape: The Innovator's Dilemma Inverted
The AFPMM competitive arena exhibits an unusual structure: pure-play specialists currently lead in performance, while incumbent industrial giants hold scale and channel advantage.

Tier Strategic Posture Representative Players Critical Challenge
Specialist Pioneers Proprietary topology; high ASP; brand equity in performance segments YASA (Mercedes), Magnax, EMRAX, Phi-Power Transition from engineering showcases to automotive-grade volume and reliability
Industrial Incumbents Defensive entry via acquisition or licensing; leverage existing automotive and industrial customer relationships Sumitomo Electric, Toshiba, Siemens Organizational impedance; cultural preference for radial flux manufacturing assets
Regional Challengers Cost-competitive manufacturing; initially targeting low-velocity applications Shenzhen SEMotor, Hangzhou ZONHOW Certification and IP barriers in regulated markets (EU, US)
独家观察 (Exclusive Insight):
The critical competitive battleground has shifted from torque density benchmarks to manufacturing scalability. YASA's Oxford facility, operationalized in 2024, employs continuous fiber winding and automated stator assembly processes adapted from the carbon fiber composites industry-not traditional motor manufacturing. This cross-industry process borrowing is reducing assembly labor content by approximately 60% compared to first-generation hand-wound units. Incumbents with deep expertise in radial flux lamination stacking and copper insertion face a competence-destroying transition, favoring agile specialists and diversifying entrants from adjacent precision manufacturing sectors.

IV. Technology Roadmap: 2025-2031
1. Yoke-Free and Coreless Topologies
Conventional AFPMMs retain some ferromagnetic material in the stator. Yokeless and coreless axial flux designs, pioneered by Magnax and licensed to multiple automotive tier-1s, eliminate stator iron entirely. This reduces mass by an additional 30-40% and eliminates iron losses, enabling continuous operation at higher speeds. The trade-off-increased permanent magnet mass and higher sensitivity to air gap tolerance-is progressively mitigated by advanced manufacturing metrology.

2. Integrated Power Electronics
The flat form factor of AFPMMs invites direct integration of the inverter and control electronics into the motor housing. OMNI Powertrain Technologies demonstrated a 2025 concept integrating silicon carbide (SiC) MOSFETs into the rear cover of an e-axle unit, eliminating 4 meters of high-voltage cabling and two sealed connectors per vehicle. This mechatronic integration trend compresses system cost and enhances reliability.

3. Heavy Rare Earth Reduction
The price volatility of dysprosium and terbium (used for high-temperature demagnetization resistance) is accelerating substitution. Additive manufacturing of graded permanent magnets-with higher coercivity only at thermally stressed rotor edges-is under validation at Sumitomo Electric and several Chinese national laboratories. Commercial deployment is anticipated by 2028-2029.

V. Supply Chain Under Tension
The AFPMM supply chain exhibits structural vulnerabilities concentrated at three nodes:

1. NdFeB Magnet Sintering
China controls approximately 87% of global neodymium magnet production (source: U.S. Geological Survey, 2025). Japanese producers (Hitachi Metals, TDK) and the emerging MP Materials/General Motors magnetics joint venture in the U.S. represent high-cost, long-lead-time alternatives. Magnet cost now constitutes 40-48% of AFPMM bill-of-materials, compared to 25-30% for radial flux PMSM, rendering the segment acutely sensitive to rare earth trade policy.

2. High-Purity Electrical Steel
Axial flux stators require non-oriented electrical steel with thicknesses ≤0.20 mm for high-frequency operation. Global capacity for this grade is constrained, with JFE Steel, Nippon Steel, and Voestalpine controlling ~70% of supply.

3. Precision Housing Machining
Lightweight aluminum or magnesium housings with sub-50 μm flatness tolerances require 5-axis CNC capacity that is regionally concentrated in Germany, Japan, and Taiwan. Lead times for new machining cell deployment exceed 12 months.

Strategic Implication for Procurement Executives:
Dual-sourcing of magnets and forward contracting of electrical steel capacity are transitioning from best practice to competitive necessity. Several Tier 2 AFPMM specialists now carry 14-18 months of NdFeB inventory, significantly above industrial norms.

VI. Forecast Scenarios and Investment Thesis
QYResearch's baseline projection of US$2.43 billion by 2031 assumes:

EV penetration reaches 45% of global light vehicle sales by 2031 (IEA Stated Policies Scenario)

eVTOL production achieves 1,200 units annually by 2030

Industrial retrofitting proceeds at current incentive-supported pace

Upside Scenario (US$2.85 billion+):

China's 14th Five-Year Plan EV efficiency mandates exceed 22 kWh/100km by 2027, favoring lightweighting technologies

European Union's Euro 7/VII compliance drives 48V mild-hybrid adoption in B/C segments, where axial flux's packaging advantage is pronounced

U.S. CHIPS and Science Act Phase 2 includes magnetic materials manufacturing incentives

Downside Sensitivity:

Primary risk is neodymium price resurgence to 2022 levels (NdPr >US$150/kg), potentially eroding 500-700 basis points of gross margin

Secondary risk: eVTOL certification delays beyond 2026-2027

VII. Strategic Recommendations by Audience
Stakeholder Strategic Imperative
CEO (Automotive Tier-1) Acquire or exclusively license axial flux IP within 12-18 months. The window for organic development is closing.
CTO (Aerospace/Defense) Qualify dual-source AFPMM suppliers for next-generation UAS and eVTOL platforms. Prioritize suppliers with in-house magnet assembly and tolerance management capability.
CFO (Industrial Conglomerate) Model accelerated depreciation of radial flux motor manufacturing assets. The residual value curve is steepening.
Investor Screen for vertical integration in magnet processing and automated stator winding patents. Specialist AFPMM suppliers currently command 3.5-5.0x revenue multiples, with potential expansion upon commercial-scale automotive design wins.
Marketing Director (Supplier) Shift messaging from "specification superiority" to system-level value storytelling. The customer is the vehicle architect, not the procurement specialist. Frame AFPMMs as battery area efficiency enablers.
Conclusion: The Flat Future of Motion
The axial flux permanent magnet motor is not simply a new product category. It is a physical manifestation of systems thinking-the recognition that in electric propulsion, the motor is no longer an isolated component to be packaged within existing vehicle architecture. It is the architecture itself.

For the engineering director tasked with extracting 5% more range from a fixed battery budget, or the venture partner evaluating the next generation of aerospace propulsion, the axial flux topology offers a rare convergence: simultaneous improvement in efficiency, mass, and package volume. Such convergences are historically associated with technology inflections that reorder industrial hierarchies.

The 12.4% CAGR is the market's acknowledgment of this inflection. The question for decision-makers is no longer if axial flux will achieve scale, but when-and whether their organizations will be positioned on the accelerating side of this topological shift.

About Us:
QYResearch founded in California, USA in 2007, which is a leading global market research and consulting company. Our primary business include market research reports, custom reports, commissioned research, IPO consultancy, business plans, etc. With over 18 years of experience and a dedicated research team, we are well placed to provide useful information and data for your business, and we have established offices in 7 countries (include United States, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, Korea, China and India) and business partners in over 30 countries. We have provided industrial information services to more than 60,000 companies in over the world.

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