Adolfo del Cueto Aramburu Presents the U.S. Economic Growth Outlook

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As part of its 25th anniversary, Bulltick, the wealth management and investment banking firm founded by Adolfo del Cueto Aramburu [https://adolfodelcueto.com/], presents its annual report. This analysis provides a detailed view of global economic projections, with a focus on the macroeconomic data that will shape the financial landscape in the coming years.

For the U.S. investment community, Bulltick presents the following analysis. In it, the firm reaffirms its commitment to offering a perspective grounded in trust and deep analysis, a fundamental pillar of its founder's philosophy.

Global economic outlook for 2026

The reports emphasize that the global economy is in a transition phase toward normalization. After the imbalances caused by the pandemic and the historic recovery of 2021, projections for 2026 anticipate moderate global growth. This will be accompanied by gradual adjustments in key variables such as inflation, interest rates, and financial markets.

Global growth: a controlled slowdown

The global economy is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2026, slightly below the 3.0% projected for 2025, extending the post-pandemic downward trend. This slowdown, which is expected to be moderate and orderly, reinforces the normalization phase that began after the historic rebound of 6.6% in 2021.

The cooling is expected to result from slower momentum among the main engines of global growth, with China, India, Japan, and the euro area posting more moderate gains than in 2025. Even so, China and India will continue to lead growth among emerging markets, although with less vigor than in previous years.

Meanwhile, developed economies are expected to maintain resilient but cautious growth. The United States will be an exception, with a steady pace slightly above its potential.

The U.S. economy: resilience and sustainable growth

Market consensus assigns a low probability to a U.S. recession in the near term. For 2026, the probability of recession is estimated at around 30%, down from 40% in mid-2025. U.S. GDP is projected to grow close to 2.3%, a faster pace than in 2025 (just over 2.0%) and above its 1.8% potential-considered healthy for a mature economy.

This favorable performance will be driven by:

Strong consumer spending.

A relatively stable labor market.

A lower tariff burden.

More flexible financial conditions stemming from interest rate cuts.

Rising investment in artificial intelligence, which continues to boost productivity.

In short, the base-case scenario points to healthy, resilient, and sustainable growth for the U.S. economy.

U.S. inflation: a persistent challenge

The report considers it unlikely that U.S. inflation will reach the Federal Reserve's 2.0% target. Projections point to persistent inflation, with elevated levels during the first half of the year.

Inflation is estimated at 3.3% by mid-2026, ending the year at around 2.9%. This stickiness is mainly driven by structural factors, which account for 60% of the inflation overshoot, versus 40% attributed to tariffs. The effort to stabilize prices will remain a challenge, despite signs of slight moderation toward year-end.

Interest rates and the labor market

The normalization of interest rates is expected to advance gradually. After three 25-basis-point cuts in 2025 that brought the policy rate to 3.75%, Bulltick's base-case scenario anticipates a prolonged pause until mid-2026. At that point, the Federal Reserve could resume easing. This adjustment will depend on developments in the labor market and inflation.

As for the labor market, the unemployment rate is projected to end the year at 4.4%, slightly above the full-employment level (4.2%) but below the 25-year average (5.7%).

There are no signs of significant deterioration; the recent rise in unemployment is due more to slower hiring and more people entering the labor force than to an increase in layoffs.

Fiscal challenges and outlook for key assets

The U.S. fiscal deficit is a point of concern. It is estimated to reach around 6.5% of GDP over the next two years, well above the prudent level (2.0%-3.0%) for a developed economy. This has pushed public debt to above 100% of GDP, increasing risks around fiscal sustainability.

Regarding strategic assets, the report anticipates the following:

U.S. dollar: a moderate and contained depreciation is expected, within a plus-minus 3% range, reinforcing a scenario of relative stability that could benefit Latin American currencies.

Oil: despite transitory geopolitical pressures, oil is expected to return to a downward path in 2026, falling by roughly 5%-6% due to global oversupply. While this scenario helps contain inflation, it poses risks for producing economies.

Gold: the precious metal will maintain its upward trend, although at a more moderate pace than the extraordinary 65% increase in 2025. Prices are expected to exceed $5,000 per ounce, potentially reaching levels around $5,400 or $5,600. This will be driven by central bank purchases, institutional demand, and geopolitical uncertainty.

The report provides an essential roadmap for investors, highlighting an environment of global economic normalization with moderate growth but resilient momentum in the United States. With its focus on long-term relationships and deep market expertise, the firm continues to deliver high-value analysis for decision-making in an ever-evolving financial world.

About Bulltick:

Founded in 1999 by Adolfo del Cueto Aramburu, Bulltick is a leading wealth management and investment banking firm headquartered in Miami, with offices in Mexico City and Bogota. For 25 years, it has established itself as a benchmark in independent financial advisory services in Latin America, serving ultra-high-net-worth individuals, institutions, and families.

Its philosophy is built on long-term, trust-based relationships, combining best-in-class operational infrastructure with the personalized service of a boutique financial firm.
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