Track Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Price Index Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

The global Mono Ethylene Glycol (MEG) market experienced sustained bearish pressure through much of 2025, driven by oversupply conditions, subdued downstream demand from the PET and polyester sectors, and fluctuating trade flows influenced by tariffs and logistics constraints. While intermittent supply disruptions and maintenance shutdowns provided short-lived price support in select regions, elevated inventories and cautious procurement behavior consistently capped any sustained recovery.

During the quarter ending September 2025, MEG prices declined across most major markets, including North America, Europe, and APAC, reflecting ample availability and weak offtake. Cost-side pressures from ethylene oxide and crude oil remained limited, reducing producer leverage. Forecasts suggest continued range-bound trading with limited upside, unless unexpected supply outages or a meaningful revival in PET demand alters current market dynamics.

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Introduction

Mono Ethylene Glycol is a critical petrochemical intermediate widely used in the production of polyethylene terephthalate resins, polyester fibers, antifreeze formulations, and industrial solvents. Given its heavy reliance on downstream PET demand and close linkage to upstream ethylene oxide and crude oil markets, MEG pricing remains highly sensitive to changes in supply availability, feedstock costs, trade policies, and logistics conditions.

Between late 2024 and Q3 2025, the MEG market navigated a complex environment marked by shifting global trade patterns, increasing recycled PET substitution, recurring plant restarts, and volatile procurement strategies. This article presents a detailed analysis of price movements, cost trends, and forecasts across key global regions, with a focus on North America, APAC, and Europe.

Global MEG Price Overview

On a global basis, MEG prices followed a broadly bearish trajectory throughout 2025, punctuated by short-term recoveries linked to supply disruptions or seasonal restocking. Persistent oversupply emerged as the dominant structural theme, reinforced by steady plant operating rates, resumed production following maintenance, and subdued export demand from Asia.

Downstream PET demand remained cautious amid weak consumer sentiment, higher penetration of recycled PET, and tariff-related trade frictions. Logistics bottlenecks and port congestion altered trade flows, often redirecting surplus volumes into already well-stocked regional markets. As a result, sellers were frequently compelled to offer discounts to stimulate movement, keeping price indices under pressure.

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Regional Price Snapshot for Q3 2025

Region Country/Hub Q3 2025 Avg Price (USD/MT) QoQ Price Movement

North America USA (Spot Avg) 412.00 -2.6%

APAC Japan 662.67 -21.55%

Europe Germany 651.33 -13.96%

MEA Saudi Arabia 497.67 Marginal Increase

South America Brazil 497.00 -2.80%

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North America MEG Market Analysis

During the quarter ending September 2025, the North American MEG market remained under pressure as the Price Index declined by 2.6 percent quarter-over-quarter. Average prices settled around USD 412 per metric ton across U.S. spot channels, reflecting weak market momentum.

Demand from the downstream PET sector remained subdued, with buyers adopting a cautious procurement stance amid elevated inventories. Increased domestic availability following plant restarts, combined with restricted export opportunities due to tariffs and logistics bottlenecks, contributed to inventory accumulation. While brief price recoveries were observed following outage-related tightening earlier in the year, these gains proved unsustainable.

Production cost trends remained soft as upstream crude oil and ethylene oxide prices failed to provide meaningful support. The price forecast for North America suggests continued range-bound behavior, with market direction contingent on export demand recovery and unplanned supply disruptions.

APAC MEG Market Analysis

The APAC region recorded the steepest decline in MEG prices during Q3 2025. In Japan, the MEG Price Index fell sharply by 21.55 percent quarter-over-quarter, with average prices reported near USD 662.67 per metric ton.

This downturn was driven primarily by ample supply conditions following the restart of domestic production units and normalized import arrivals. Elevated inventories outweighed any seasonal improvement in PET demand. Weak cost-side support from softened crude oil prices further pressured import valuations.

Procurement behavior across APAC remained conservative, with buyers limiting purchases to essential volumes. Logistics normalization and tariff impacts on downstream exports reinforced cautious sentiment. Price forecasts for the region indicate limited upside, as supply-demand balance remains skewed toward oversupply.

Europe MEG Market Analysis

European MEG prices also trended downward during the quarter ending September 2025. In Germany, the Price Index declined by 13.96 percent quarter-over-quarter, with average prices reaching approximately USD 651.33 per metric ton on an FD Hamburg basis.

Ample import inflows from the U.S. and Middle East, combined with high inventory levels, weighed heavily on spot pricing. Downstream PET demand remained weak ahead of seasonal restocking, prompting cautious buying behavior among converters. Although intermittent exporter disruptions briefly tightened supply, these effects were short-lived and followed by price corrections.

Production costs remained weak due to limited pressure from ethylene oxide and upstream crude oil. Supplier discounting became increasingly common as sellers sought to clear inventories in a competitive market environment.

Historical Quarterly Review

From Q4 2024 through Q1 2025, MEG prices displayed higher volatility, shaped largely by weather-related disruptions, force majeure declarations, and logistical challenges. Winter storms in North America, hurricanes along the U.S. Gulf Coast, and port strikes in Canada temporarily tightened global supply, pushing prices upward despite weak downstream demand.

By Q2 2025, market sentiment shifted decisively bearish as production normalized, inventories rebuilt, and export demand weakened. Although scheduled maintenance and force majeure events provided brief relief, the underlying oversupply persisted across regions.

Q3 2025 reinforced this trend, with declining prices in most markets and only marginal stability observed in parts of the Middle East.

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Production and Cost Structure Insights

MEG production costs are closely linked to ethylene oxide availability and crude oil price movements. Throughout 2025, feedstock costs remained relatively subdued, limiting cost-push inflation. Stable operating rates and efficient plant utilization further reduced producer pricing power.

In regions such as the Middle East, integrated production structures and stable feedstock pricing supported cost stability, enabling producers to maintain competitive export pricing despite weak demand.

Procurement Behavior and Trade Flow Dynamics

Across all major regions, procurement strategies remained conservative. Buyers prioritized inventory optimization and short-term coverage rather than forward buying. Trade flows were frequently disrupted by tariffs, shifting freight economics, and port congestion, leading to regional imbalances.

Increased U.S. exports to South America and Europe, combined with reduced Asian buying interest, intensified competitive pressures in destination markets. These dynamics reinforced bearish sentiment and limited price recovery potential.

MEG Price Forecast and Outlook

Looking ahead, MEG prices are expected to remain range-bound in the near term. Any upside potential hinges on unexpected supply disruptions, stronger-than-anticipated PET demand recovery, or significant changes in trade policy. Conversely, continued oversupply, high inventories, and muted downstream consumption pose downside risks.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors drove MEG price declines in 2025

Persistent oversupply, weak PET demand, elevated inventories, and limited cost support were the primary drivers.

How did logistics and trade policies affect MEG pricing

Tariffs, port congestion, and redirected trade flows increased regional oversupply and pressured spot prices.

Which region saw the steepest price decline

APAC, particularly Japan, recorded the sharpest quarter-over-quarter price drop during Q3 2025.

Is a price recovery expected

Only limited recovery is anticipated unless supply tightens materially or downstream demand improves.

How ChemAnalyst Supports MEG Buyers

ChemAnalyst empowers buyers with real-time price tracking, weekly market updates, and forward-looking forecasts across more than 450 commodities, including Mono Ethylene Glycol. By combining on-the-ground intelligence from major trading hubs with expert analysis of supply disruptions, trade flows, and cost structures, ChemAnalyst enables procurement teams to make informed purchasing decisions.

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This release was published on openPR.