Sweetened Condensed Milk Market to Grow at 5.6% CAGR Driven by Rising Demand for Bakery and Dessert Ingredients

The sweetened condensed milk market is expanding globally as consumers and food manufacturers continue to rely on its versatility, sweetness, and extended shelf life.

As per Market Research Future analysis, the Sweetened Condensed Milk Market Size was estimated at USD 7.6 Billion in 2024. The market is projected to grow from USD 8.026 Billion in 2025 to USD 13.84 Billion by 2035, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6% during the forecast period from 2025 to 2035. This growth reflects the sustained popularity of sweetened condensed milk across household consumption and commercial food processing applications.

Sweetened condensed milk is produced by removing a significant portion of water from milk and adding sugar, resulting in a thick, sweet, and shelf-stable dairy product. Its rich taste, creamy texture, and long storage life make it a widely used ingredient in desserts, beverages, bakery items, and confectionery products. The product is especially popular in regions where refrigeration access may be limited, further supporting its widespread adoption.

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The expansion of the global sweetened condensed milk market is closely linked to rising demand for convenience-oriented dairy products and the growing consumption of indulgent food items. Urbanization, changing lifestyles, and increasing disposable income have contributed to higher consumption of bakery products, desserts, and ready-to-use ingredients, where sweetened condensed milk plays a key role.

Key factors supporting the 5.6% CAGR include:

Growing demand for bakery, confectionery, and dessert products

Increasing use of sweetened condensed milk in beverages and traditional recipes

Rising preference for long shelf-life dairy products

Expansion of foodservice and commercial baking industries

Strong consumption in emerging and developing markets

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From an application perspective, the bakery and confectionery segment accounts for a significant share of the sweetened condensed milk market. The product is widely used in cakes, pastries, chocolates, and fillings due to its sweetness and binding properties. The household segment also represents a substantial portion of demand, particularly for use in tea, coffee, desserts, and homemade sweets. Additionally, the foodservice segment continues to grow as cafés, bakeries, and dessert chains incorporate sweetened condensed milk into their menus.

In terms of packaging, cans remain the most commonly used format due to durability and extended shelf life. However, flexible packaging options such as tubes and pouches are gaining popularity, especially among consumers seeking convenience and portion control. These innovations are improving accessibility and driving repeat purchases.

Regionally, Asia-Pacific dominates the sweetened condensed milk market, supported by strong cultural usage in desserts and beverages across countries such as India, China, and Southeast Asia. Latin America also represents a key market, where sweetened condensed milk is widely used in traditional sweets. Europe and North America show steady demand, driven by bakery consumption and increasing interest in global dessert recipes.

Despite favorable growth prospects, the market faces challenges such as rising raw milk prices and growing health concerns related to sugar intake. In response, manufacturers are focusing on portion-sized packaging and exploring reduced-sugar alternatives to meet evolving consumer preferences.

Overall, the sweetened condensed milk industry is expected to maintain stable growth through 2035, supported by its versatility, affordability, and widespread culinary applications. With continued demand from bakery, beverage, and household segments, sweetened condensed milk remains a key product in the global dairy market.

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