Track Rapeseed Oil Price Trend Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

Rapeseed oil prices experienced significant volatility in Q3 2025 across global markets, driven by a combination of supply constraints, competitive dynamics from other edible oils, logistical challenges, and variable demand patterns. North America saw a notable rebound, with the USA Rapeseed Oil Price Index rising 9.57% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tightened supply and biodiesel-driven demand. In APAC, India experienced a 9.28% increase, driven by constrained crushing throughput and elevated seed and freight costs. Europe witnessed the sharpest quarterly rise at 12.6%, largely due to tightened export supply and port congestion.

The quarter's market activity highlights the ongoing tension between food industry moderation and biodiesel procurement, fluctuating export flows, and the influence of regional production costs and logistics on price formation. Historical trends reveal a market sensitive to harvest cycles, geopolitical developments, and competitive edible oil dynamics. Looking ahead, forecasts suggest moderated upward pressure in North America, stable to slightly declining prices in India as harvest arrivals improve, and a measured recovery in Europe amid normalization of inventories.

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Introduction

Rapeseed oil remains a key global edible oil, with extensive applications across food processing, industrial sectors, and renewable biofuel production. Market movements are shaped by a complex interplay of production costs, international trade flows, currency fluctuations, and competing oils such as soybean, palm, and sunflower oil. This article examines the quarterly performance of rapeseed oil prices through Q3 2025, analyzes regional market dynamics in North America, APAC, and Europe, and provides a forward-looking perspective on price trends. Detailed insights into procurement behavior, supply conditions, logistics, and trade flows are included to support informed decision-making by market participants.

Global Price Overview
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Region | Country | Quarter | Price Index Change (%) | Average Price (USD/MT) | Basis/Notes
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North America | USA | Q3 2025 | +9.57 | 1355.00 | CIF
APAC | India | Q3 2025 | +9.28 | 1805.58 | Import pressures
Europe | Germany | Q3 2025 | +12.6 | 1247.33 | FOB Hamburg exports
North America | USA | Q2 2025 | -4.71 | 1111.00 | Spot price
APAC | India | Q2 2025 | +2.32 | - | Spot price
Europe | Germany | Q2 2025 | -6.7 | 945.00 | Spot price
North America | USA | Q1 2025 | +3.86 | 1281.00 | -
APAC | India | Q1 2025 | -2.98 | - | -
Europe | Germany | Q1 2025 | +5.36 | - | -
North America | USA | Q4 2024 | - | 1212.00 | CFR Chicago
APAC | India | Q4 2024 | - | 1568.12 | Ex Jaipur
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Regional Analysis

North America

In the USA, Q3 2025 saw a strong rebound in rapeseed oil prices, with the Price Index rising 9.57% quarter-over-quarter and average CIF prices reaching USD 1355.00/MT. Tightened import volumes due to variable harvests and global export reductions supported upward price momentum. Freight increases and port congestion further raised landed costs, complicating procurement decisions.

The demand environment was bifurcated, with muted food industry buying offset by robust biodiesel procurement. Spot prices faced competitive pressure from soybean and palm oil, affecting margins. Inventory levels and export flows strongly influenced CFR Chicago arrivals, while exporters maintained aggressive FOB offers, keeping the market actively traded.

Historically, the North American market exhibited volatility. Q2 2025 saw a 4.71% price decline to USD 1111/MT due to oversupply from Canada and Europe and muted biodiesel demand. Q1 2025 reflected cautious optimism, with a 3.86% rise to USD 1281/MT supported by biofuel demand amid supply constraints. Q4 2024 concluded at USD 1212/MT after weather-related production disruptions and fluctuating export demand.

Production cost trends remained elevated through freight and crush margins, although June Q2 oversupply temporarily alleviated some pressure. Procurement strategies emphasized supply continuity over pricing, prioritizing reliability amid global uncertainty.

APAC

India experienced a 9.28% quarter-over-quarter increase in Q3 2025, with average import prices of USD 1805.58/MT. The market remained firm due to constrained crushing throughput, higher seed costs, and freight inflation. Inventory drawdowns and export interest further tightened availability, sustaining price strength. Monsoon logistics and variable refinery run rates contributed to spot price support.

Price moderation is expected as harvest arrivals improve supply, although strong festival-season buying and sustained export demand may limit declines. Historical trends indicate Q2 2025 prices rose by 2.32% due to supply constraints and biofuel blending mandates, while Q1 2025 experienced a 2.98% decline due to higher inventory clearance pressures.

Production costs in India remained high due to rising seed and freight prices, squeezing margins for crushers. Demand outlook remained positive for food processors and exporters, maintaining steady procurement and inventory adjustments. Logistics challenges, including monsoon-related transport delays, influenced trade flows and elevated landed costs.

Europe

Germany recorded the sharpest quarterly increase of 12.6% in Q3 2025, with FOB Hamburg exports averaging USD 1247.33/MT. Tighter export shipments and port congestion drove spot price rallies, supported by biodiesel blending demand and gradual restocking in export markets.

Price volatility in Europe reflected large harvest swings, initially causing oversupply before weather losses tightened availability. Feedstock price declines eased production costs, but freight increases and logistical delays heightened landed costs. Export competition from sunflower and soybean oils constrained domestic offtake, influencing pricing behavior.

Historically, Q2 2025 prices dropped 6.7% to €945/MT amid oversupply, while Q1 2025 saw a 5.36% rise due to biofuel demand and limited domestic production. Q4 2024 experienced strong volatility with sharp October increases followed by December corrections, reflecting global production shortfalls and currency fluctuations.

Production cost trends in Europe eased as feedstock prices declined, allowing processors to operate amid tight margins. Procurement behavior focused on balancing export obligations with domestic demand, while logistics challenges in ports like Hamburg amplified short-term pricing pressures.

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Historical Quarterly Review

Q4 2024: North America USD 1212/MT, Europe and APAC saw fluctuations due to harvest outcomes and post-festive demand adjustments.
Q1 2025: Price rises in USA (+3.86%) and Germany (+5.36%), India (-2.98%), influenced by biofuel demand, supply constraints, and currency effects.
Q2 2025: Mixed performance; North America down 4.71%, Europe down 6.7%, APAC up 2.32% due to oversupply corrections, competitive oils, and logistical challenges.
Q3 2025: Global rebound; North America +9.57%, India +9.28%, Germany +12.6%, reflecting tightened supply, biodiesel procurement, and port constraints.
Production and Cost Structure Insights

Production costs remain a key driver of price behavior. Across regions:

Freight and logistics expenses consistently contributed to landed cost pressures, particularly in North America and APAC.
Crushing margins and feedstock price volatility influenced processor profitability in all regions.
Monsoon-related disruptions in India affected refinery run rates, supporting spot price firmness.
In Europe, feedstock price declines partially eased costs, but export competition and port congestion created short-term upward pressure.
Procurement Outlook

Market participants continue to prioritize reliable supply amid volatility. In North America, procurement strategies emphasize securing biodiesel feedstock while balancing inventory costs. APAC buyers focus on export and festival-driven demand, mitigating tight domestic supply. European purchasers navigate port congestion and competition from alternative oils, with careful attention to export obligations.

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FAQ

Why did rapeseed oil prices rise sharply in Q3 2025 in North America
Tightened global exports, variable harvests, rising freight, and port congestion increased landed costs. Strong biodiesel procurement contrasted with muted food sector demand, supporting uneven price increases.

Why are APAC prices expected to moderate in the near term
Harvest arrivals in India are improving supply, which may ease immediate tightness, although strong export demand and seasonal buying will partially offset declines.

What factors influenced European price volatility
Large regional harvests initially created oversupply, followed by weather-induced losses tightening availability. Port congestion, freight increases, and export competition with alternative oils contributed to pricing swings.

How do production costs affect market behavior
Higher freight, seed, and energy costs squeeze processor margins, limiting price declines, while feedstock price reductions can ease production costs and support processing.

How does logistics impact rapeseed oil trade
Port congestion, freight cost fluctuations, and monsoon-related transport issues affect landed costs, import volumes, and spot pricing across all regions.

ChemAnalyst Support for Buyers

ChemAnalyst provides actionable market intelligence, offering real-time price updates, weekly trends, and comprehensive reporting for over 450 commodities including rapeseed oil. Our team of chemical engineers and market experts tracks production costs, port activities, logistics, and trade flows, giving buyers insights to optimize procurement.

Price forecasts enable timely decision-making, helping clients anticipate market movements and mitigate supply risks. Ground teams across 50+ major trading ports provide first-hand information to ensure accurate and timely reporting. By combining data, forecasts, and supply-chain intelligence, ChemAnalyst empowers buyers to make informed procurement decisions, manage risk, and maximize cost efficiency.

This report demonstrates that global rapeseed oil markets are in a phase of recovery from prior oversupply corrections, with regional disparities driven by local supply, harvest conditions, logistics, and demand segmentation between food and biodiesel sectors. Stakeholders must remain vigilant, leveraging reliable market intelligence to navigate volatility and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

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