Track Mustard Oil Price Trend Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

The global mustard oil market displayed a mixed yet structurally resilient pricing landscape through 2024 and 2025, shaped by agricultural cycles, edible oil substitution, logistics dynamics, and evolving consumer preferences. During the quarter ending September 2025, mustard oil prices softened marginally across most regions, reflecting post-harvest supply abundance in Asia Pacific, cautious procurement behavior in North America, and substitution pressure from alternative oils in Europe. However, the downside remained limited due to firm seasonal demand, controlled inventories in select hubs, and rising logistics and handling costs.

In APAC, particularly India, prices edged slightly lower on a quarter-over-quarter basis as post-rabi seed arrivals boosted crushing activity, while festival-linked demand and export inquiries supported near-term price stability. Europe experienced a modest easing in prices due to ample inventories and cheaper substitute oils, though niche consumption in specialty food segments provided a demand floor. In North America, subdued downstream demand and competitive pricing from soybean and canola oil weighed on sentiment, keeping the market largely rangebound.

Looking ahead, mustard oil price forecasts remain cautiously bullish in core consuming regions, supported by seasonal consumption cycles, transportation cost inflation, and tightening inventories in select production clusters. ChemAnalyst expects price volatility to remain moderate, with procurement strategies increasingly guided by real-time data, inventory visibility, and substitution economics.

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Introduction

Mustard oil occupies a unique position within the global edible oil complex, balancing traditional consumption patterns with emerging health-oriented demand. Widely used across South Asia and gaining traction in specialty food markets globally, mustard oil pricing is influenced by agricultural output, oilseed arrivals, government policies, logistics conditions, and competition from other vegetable oils.

Between Q4 2024 and Q3 2025, the mustard oil market transitioned from festive-driven firmness to supply-led corrections and finally into a period of cautious equilibrium. While price volatility remained lower compared to palm or soybean oil, regional divergences became more pronounced, underscoring the importance of localized supply chains and consumption behavior.

This report presents a comprehensive review of mustard oil price trends and forecasts, combining quarterly movements, regional analysis, cost structures, procurement behavior, and trade-flow impacts across APAC, Europe, and North America.

Global Mustard Oil Price Overview

Globally, mustard oil prices followed a mildly corrective trend through mid-2025 before stabilizing in Q3 2025. Increased oilseed availability from strong harvests, coupled with high inventories and subdued speculative activity, limited price upside. At the same time, rising freight costs, monsoon-related logistics challenges, and steady niche demand prevented sharper price declines.

While Asia Pacific remains the dominant pricing benchmark due to India's production and consumption scale, international markets increasingly reflect substitution economics, currency stability, and import competitiveness. Overall, the global mustard oil market in 2025 has been characterized by balanced fundamentals rather than extreme price movements.

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Regional Price Trend Analysis

Asia Pacific Market Overview

In the quarter ending September 2025, the Asia Pacific mustard oil market, led by India, recorded a marginal decline in prices. The Mustard Oil Price Index fell by 0.09% quarter-over-quarter as abundant post-rabi mustard seed arrivals significantly increased domestic crushing output. This oversupply environment pressured mill realizations and widened spot market spreads.

Despite the supply-side pressure, prices remained relatively resilient due to seasonal demand linked to upcoming festivals and steady processing requirements. Market models continued to signal a bullish price forecast for the near term, supported by export inquiries and mill rationing in select regions. Inventory tightening near Agra prompted mill premiums and short-covering activity, influencing regional price indices.

Rising transport costs and monsoon-related handling challenges elevated the production cost trend, limiting margin compression for crushers. While speculative participation declined, reduced pricing power from competing palm and soybean oil imports constrained deeper corrections. Overall, the APAC market entered Q4 2025 with firm short-term demand and improving price sentiment.

Europe Market Overview

Across Europe, mustard oil prices eased slightly during Q3 2025, reflecting stable but uninspired consumption trends. The availability of cheaper sunflower and rapeseed oil imports curtailed substitution demand, particularly in mainstream food processing. Retail offtake remained modest, though specialty food and condiment manufacturers continued to provide baseline demand support.

Production costs remained largely stable due to normalized energy prices and efficient crushing operations. Inventories across Western Europe stayed comfortable, while localized tightening in parts of Eastern Europe led to minor mill premiums. Favorable freight conditions, stable euro exchange rates, and predictable port operations reduced landed cost volatility.

The European mustard oil demand outlook remained steady to mildly weak, with processors prioritizing inventory liquidation over aggressive spot procurement. However, long-term interest in organic and specialty mustard oil products continued to support pricing resilience.

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North America Market Overview

In North America, mustard oil prices in the United States and Canada slipped modestly quarter-over-quarter during Q3 2025. Subdued downstream demand, coupled with strong competition from soybean and canola oil, softened spot market sentiment. Refiners focused on destocking, while food manufacturers and retail bottlers maintained conservative procurement strategies.

Production cost trends remained stable, supported by moderated energy costs and consistent processing margins. Inventories in Midwestern hubs remained elevated, while selective tightening near Pacific Northwest processing centers prevented aggressive price declines. Logistics operations were smooth, with no significant port or inland transportation disruptions reported.

Demand outlook in North America remained steady to slightly weak, as industrial users relied more heavily on contract volumes rather than spot purchases.

Historical Quarterly Price Review

During Q2 2025, mustard oil prices remained largely stable in North America, supported by steady demand from ethnic and specialty food segments. APAC prices increased by approximately 1.57% quarter-over-quarter due to supply tightness and rising production costs before correcting in June. Europe reflected a stable to mildly upward trend, influenced by India's market momentum.

In Q1 2025, APAC markets experienced significant volatility, with January price increases driven by currency weakness and supply constraints, followed by sharp corrections in February and March due to heavy seed arrivals. North America and Europe followed similar patterns, with early-quarter firmness giving way to stabilization.

Q4 2024 saw broadly firm prices across regions, supported by festive demand, winter consumption patterns, and elevated global edible oil prices.

Production and Cost Structure Insights

Mustard oil production costs are primarily influenced by mustard seed procurement prices, labor availability, fuel costs, and logistics expenses. While processing efficiencies have helped absorb some cost pressures, rising transportation expenses and monsoon-related disruptions in APAC elevated overall cost structures in 2025.

In Europe and North America, energy price normalization and operational efficiency stabilized production costs, allowing processors to maintain predictable margins.

Procurement Behavior and Trade Flow Dynamics

Buyers across regions adopted cautious procurement strategies in 2025, prioritizing inventory optimization and contract coverage. Substitution dynamics with palm, soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed oils significantly influenced buying decisions, particularly in Europe and North America.

Trade flows remained stable, supported by smooth port operations, favorable currency movements, and consistent container availability. Export inquiries from APAC provided incremental support to domestic price indices.

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Mustard Oil Price Forecast and Outlook

The mustard oil price forecast for the coming quarters remains cautiously optimistic. Seasonal demand cycles, festival-linked consumption, and rising logistics costs are expected to support prices, while abundant seed availability and edible oil substitution will cap upside potential.

Market participants are expected to increasingly rely on data-driven procurement strategies to navigate price fluctuations.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did mustard oil prices decline in Q3 2025

Prices declined due to abundant post-rabi seed arrivals, increased crushing output, and subdued speculative activity, particularly in APAC.

What factors supported price stability despite oversupply

Seasonal demand, rising transportation costs, inventory tightening in select hubs, and export inquiries limited downside pressure.

How does substitution impact mustard oil pricing

Cheaper palm, soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed oils reduce pricing power, especially in Europe and North America.

What is the outlook for mustard oil prices

The outlook remains stable to mildly bullish, supported by seasonal consumption and cost pressures, with limited volatility expected.

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This release was published on openPR.