Track Hexene Price Trend Historical and Forecast

Executive Summary

The global Hexene market experienced a pronounced bearish cycle through 2024 and 2025, culminating in a sharp quarter-over-quarter price correction in the quarter ending September 2025 across all major regions. Prices declined significantly in North America, Asia-Pacific (APAC), and Europe, driven by persistent oversupply, subdued polyethylene demand, elevated inventories, and cautious procurement behavior from downstream converters.

In North America, the Hexene Price Index fell by over 15% quarter-over-quarter, pressured by weak LLDPE and HDPE demand, high Gulf Coast inventories, and reduced export competitiveness amid a stronger US dollar. APAC markets, particularly South Korea, mirrored this trend as oversupply, muted construction activity, and restrained polyethylene procurement weighed heavily on spot prices. Meanwhile, Europe, led by Germany, faced import-led oversupply and subdued packaging and construction demand, pushing prices lower despite relatively stable production costs.

Historically, Hexene prices transitioned from a volatile environment in early 2025-marked by brief cost-driven rallies-to a sustained downturn by mid-2025 as demand failed to recover. Production economics improved marginally due to softer ethylene and energy inputs, but this cost relief was insufficient to counterbalance demand-side weakness.

Looking ahead, the Hexene price forecast remains cautiously bearish, with limited upside potential unless a meaningful recovery emerges in polyethylene restocking cycles, construction activity, and export demand. Buyers are expected to maintain conservative procurement strategies, while producers may increasingly rely on volume-driven sales and inventory management to navigate the ongoing imbalance.

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Introduction

Hexene (1-Hexene) is a critical alpha-olefin used primarily as a comonomer in the production of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and high-density polyethylene (HDPE). Its demand is therefore closely tied to downstream polyethylene applications such as packaging films, construction materials, pipes, automotive components, geomembranes, and cable insulation.

Over the past year, the Hexene market has been shaped by a complex interaction of macroeconomic pressures, regional supply dynamics, feedstock cost movements, logistics conditions, and evolving procurement behavior. While producers maintained steady operating rates across major hubs, downstream demand growth failed to keep pace, resulting in structural oversupply and sustained price pressure.

This report provides a comprehensive overview of Hexene price trends and forecasts, including a global price perspective, detailed regional analysis for North America, APAC, and Europe, a historical quarterly review, and insights into production economics, procurement behavior, and trade flows.

Global Hexene Price Overview

Globally, Hexene prices trended lower through 2024 and 2025 as supply remained ample while demand growth stagnated. Major production centers in the United States, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Europe operated at largely stable utilization rates, ensuring consistent availability of material across spot and contract markets.

At the same time, downstream polyethylene producers-particularly in construction-linked and discretionary end-use segments-reduced operating rates or delayed procurement due to high interest rates, weak macroeconomic indicators, and subdued export orders. This imbalance translated into elevated inventories at ports, terminals, and producer storage hubs, limiting sellers' ability to defend pricing.

Trade flows also played a crucial role. Competitive Asian and Middle Eastern offers, coupled with fluctuating freight costs and currency movements, intensified price competition across regions. As a result, Hexene prices across major benchmarks declined sharply by Q3 2025, setting a bearish tone for the near-term outlook.

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Regional Price Analysis

North America

Quarter Ending September 2025

In the United States, the Hexene Price Index declined by 15.07% quarter-over-quarter during Q3 2025. The average Hexene price for the quarter stood at approximately USD 1,241.67/MT, reflecting subdued contract activity and limited spot liquidity.

Hexene spot prices along the US Gulf Coast remained under pressure as inventories continued to rise and spot procurement activity declined. Weak polyethylene demand-particularly from LLDPE and HDPE converters-led buyers to delay purchases and operate on hand-to-mouth strategies.

Despite easing natural gas and ethylene feedstock costs, the production cost trend failed to provide meaningful price support. Producers including Chevron Phillips, INEOS, Shell, Sasol, and ExxonMobil largely maintained operating rates near full utilization, reinforcing supply availability and limiting scarcity.

Export competitiveness also weakened as Asian-origin offers undercut US FOB pricing, while a stronger US dollar reduced export flows. As a result, domestic sellers were compelled to lower offers to clear inventory.

Why Did Prices Fall in September 2025?

Weak polyethylene demand reduced spot and contract procurement.
High Gulf Coast inventories limited any supply-side pricing power.
Competitive Asian offers and reduced export demand pressured FOB pricing.
Historical Context (Q4 2024 - Q2 2025)

North American Hexene prices were already under pressure in Q4 2024, driven by oversupply, weak construction and automotive demand, and reduced export opportunities. Although Q1 2025 began with a brief bullish phase due to supply chain normalization and higher feedstock costs, oversupply resurfaced by March. By Q2 2025, prices continued sliding as housing slowdowns and high interest rates constrained downstream demand.

Asia-Pacific (APAC)

Quarter Ending September 2025

In South Korea, the Hexene Price Index fell by 15.41% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025. Average prices for the quarter were approximately USD 1,432.33/MT, reflecting sustained moving-average weakness.

Spot prices declined as exporters discounted offers to manage rising inventories amid weak polyethylene procurement. Demand from construction-linked applications remained muted, while LLDPE and HDPE converters adopted cautious purchasing strategies.

Production costs stayed subdued due to softer ethylene feedstock prices, allowing sellers to remain flexible on pricing. Domestic crackers operated steadily, maintaining supply continuity and further tempering volatility.

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Why Did Prices Fall in September 2025?

Persistent weakness in polyethylene demand reduced offtake.
Ample imports and steady domestic output elevated inventories.
Softer ethylene costs eased production pressure but failed to stimulate demand.
Historical Context (Q4 2024 - Q2 2025)

APAC markets, particularly China and South Korea, experienced a prolonged downturn from late 2024 onward. Q4 2024 saw declining prices due to weak HDPE and LDPE demand, lower ethylene costs, and export challenges. While Q1 2025 witnessed brief price support from rising feedstock costs, oversupply and weak construction demand re-emerged by March. By Q2 2025, excess inventories and subdued regional demand continued to weigh on pricing.

Europe

Quarter Ending September 2025

In Germany, the Hexene Price Index declined by 15.0% quarter-over-quarter during Q3 2025. Average prices stood at approximately USD 1,555.00/MT (CFR Hamburg).

Hexene spot prices weakened as port inventories accumulated, driven by uninterrupted import flows and cautious local offtake. Packaging and construction sectors restricted procurement, keeping reordering cycles conservative.

Production cost trends remained muted, with stable ethylene feedstock prices and contained energy costs offering little upward pressure. While logistics friction along the Rhine corridor marginally raised costs, it did not materially impact overall market weakness.

Why Did Prices Fall in September 2025?

Import-led oversupply increased port inventories.
Weak polyethylene demand delayed replenishment.
Stable feedstock and energy costs failed to offset surplus conditions.
Historical Context (Q4 2024 - Q2 2025)

European Hexene prices declined steadily through Q4 2024 amid weak construction and automotive demand and lower global ethylene prices. Q1 2025 featured brief volatility, with temporary feedstock-driven price increases in February, followed by renewed weakness in March. By Q2 2025, oversupply and cautious procurement behavior dominated the market.

Production and Cost Structure Insights

Hexene production economics improved modestly in 2025 due to softer ethylene feedstock prices, easing natural gas costs, and more stable energy benchmarks across regions. However, these cost reductions were largely absorbed by margin pressure rather than passed through as price support.

Producers prioritized operating efficiency and volume optimization, maintaining steady run rates despite weak demand. This strategy ensured supply continuity but contributed to persistent inventory accumulation across global hubs.

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Procurement Behavior and Supply Conditions

Across regions, buyers adopted short-cycle, hand-to-mouth procurement strategies, reflecting low confidence in near-term demand recovery. Large converters delayed restocking, anticipating further price declines, while traders focused on inventory management rather than speculative positioning.

Supply conditions remained ample due to:

Steady cracker operations
Limited unplanned outages
Continued import flows into Europe and Asia
Hexene Price Forecast and Procurement Outlook

The near-term Hexene price forecast remains subdued, with limited upside potential unless polyethylene demand materially strengthens. Any recovery is likely to be gradual and demand-led rather than cost-driven.

Procurement teams are expected to:

Maintain cautious buying strategies
Monitor polyethylene restocking cycles closely
Leverage spot opportunities during periods of excess supply
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Why are Hexene prices declining globally?

Persistent oversupply, weak polyethylene demand, high inventories, and cautious procurement behavior are the primary drivers.

Which region saw the steepest decline in Q3 2025?

MEA experienced the sharpest drop, followed closely by North America and APAC, each recording declines of around 15% or more.

Are production costs supporting Hexene prices?

No. While feedstock and energy costs eased, demand weakness outweighed any cost-side support.

When could Hexene prices recover?

A recovery depends on a sustained rebound in polyethylene demand, particularly in construction and packaging sectors.

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How ChemAnalyst Supports Hexene Buyers

ChemAnalyst empowers buyers, traders, and procurement teams with real-time market intelligence, weekly price updates, and forward-looking forecasts across the Hexene value chain. By combining on-ground insights from major trading hubs with expert analysis, ChemAnalyst explains not just what prices are, but why they move.

With coverage across 450+ commodities, ChemAnalyst helps market participants:

Optimize procurement timing
Anticipate price movements
Monitor plant operations and supply disruptions
Navigate complex global trade flows
Backed by analysts with expertise in chemical engineering, economics, supply chains, and trading-and a global presence spanning Houston, Cologne, and New Delhi-ChemAnalyst delivers actionable intelligence to help businesses stay competitive in volatile markets.

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