November Forecast for China's Ultra High-Power Graphite Electrode Market

In October, the domestic market for ultra-high-power graphite electrodes [https://www.aohuicorp.com/uhp-graphite-electrode.html] first remained stable and then rose. Steel tender prices showed a slight upward trend. Due to stockpiling before the double festivals, adjustments in steelmaking processes by steel companies, and declining profits of finished materials, transaction volumes in October decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was generally moderate. The conflict between rising raw petroleum coke prices and shrinking demand became more prominent. How will the ultra-high-power graphite electrode market perform in November?

1. Review of Ultra-High-Power Graphite Electrode Prices

In October, the ultra-high-power graphite electrode market basically remained stable. Currently, 450 ultra-high-power graphite electrodes are quoted at 15,300 RMB/ton, 500 at 15,800 RMB/ton, and 550 at 16,300 RMB/ton. Regarding steel company tenders, steel tender prices in October slightly increased on top of the gains realized at the end of September.

2. Rising Raw Material Prices Push Electrode Costs Higher

From the perspective of electrode raw materials, petroleum coke prices increased for two consecutive months in October, with a monthly average rising by 84 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.06%. Although coal tar pitch prices fell slightly, their proportion in electrode costs is limited, so overall electrode costs continued to rise. It is understood that petroleum coke prices are expected to rise in November as well, with suppliers increasingly inclined to raise prices.

3. Poor Finished Material Profits May Lead to Falling Graphite Electrode Demand

Theoretical calculations show that both long and short process production of finished materials incurred varying degrees of losses, reducing production enthusiasm. Combined with some regions affected by environmental regulations, production pace slowed, and production is expected to decline. From another perspective, due to differences in steelmaking processes and the need to reduce costs, short-term adjustments in refining time and refining ratio also affect the purchasing rhythm of graphite electrodes. Therefore, the probability of a decline in ultra-high-power graphite electrode demand is high.

4. Declining Export Prices May Weigh on Export Volumes

Regarding graphite electrode exports, in September 2025, exports of furnace electrodes were approximately 30,600 tons, an increase of 12.29% year-on-year. From January to September, total exports reached 266,800 tons, up 6.13% from the previous year. In terms of export prices, the 2025 average export price of graphite electrodes was lower than in 2024. Domestic graphite electrode prices rose between September and October, while the average export price of graphite electrodes in September fell 4.33% compared with August. According to cost-based calculations, taking 500 ultra-high-power graphite electrodes as an example, they are at the breakeven margin. Export prices below domestic market prices may, to some extent, restrict the fulfillment of export orders, dragging down export volumes.

5. Summary and Outlook

By the end of October, graphite electrode [https://www.aohuicorp.com/products/] prices rose, and some steel companies had already completed their procurement beforehand. From the procurement results, the increase did not meet expectations. The strengthening trend of petroleum coke prices has driven up graphite electrode costs, narrowing the loss margin, but profitability has not yet been achieved. Suppliers are optimistic about further price increases. It is expected that the domestic ultra-high-power graphite electrode market still has upward potential in November, but the production situation of downstream steel companies needs to be closely monitored.

In October, the domestic market for ultra-high-power graphite electrodes first remained stable and then rose. Steel tender prices showed a slight upward trend. Due to stockpiling before the double festivals, adjustments in steelmaking processes by steel companies, and declining profits of finished materials, transaction volumes in October decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was generally moderate. The conflict between rising raw petroleum coke prices and shrinking demand became more prominent. How will the ultra-high-power graphite electrode market perform in November?

1. Review of Ultra-High-Power Graphite Electrode Prices

In October, the ultra-high-power graphite electrode market basically remained stable. Currently, 450 ultra-high-power graphite electrodes are quoted at 15,300 RMB/ton, 500 at 15,800 RMB/ton, and 550 at 16,300 RMB/ton. Regarding steel company tenders, steel tender prices in October slightly increased on top of the gains realized at the end of September.

2. Rising Raw Material Prices Push Electrode Costs Higher

From the perspective of electrode raw materials, petroleum coke prices increased for two consecutive months in October, with a monthly average rising by 84 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.06%. Although coal tar pitch prices fell slightly, their proportion in electrode costs is limited, so overall electrode costs continued to rise. It is understood that petroleum coke prices are expected to rise in November as well, with suppliers increasingly inclined to raise prices.

3. Poor Finished Material Profits May Lead to Falling Graphite Electrode Demand

Theoretical calculations show that both long and short process production of finished materials incurred varying degrees of losses, reducing production enthusiasm. Combined with some regions affected by environmental regulations, production pace slowed, and production is expected to decline. From another perspective, due to differences in steelmaking processes and the need to reduce costs, short-term adjustments in refining time and refining ratio also affect the purchasing rhythm of graphite electrodes. Therefore, the probability of a decline in ultra-high-power graphite electrode demand is high.

4. Declining Export Prices May Weigh on Export Volumes

Regarding graphite electrode exports, in September 2025, exports of furnace electrodes were approximately 30,600 tons, an increase of 12.29% year-on-year. From January to September, total exports reached 266,800 tons, up 6.13% from the previous year. In terms of export prices, the 2025 average export price of graphite electrodes was lower than in 2024. Domestic graphite electrode prices rose between September and October, while the average export price of graphite electrodes in September fell 4.33% compared with August. According to cost-based calculations, taking 500 ultra-high-power graphite electrodes as an example, they are at the breakeven margin. Export prices below domestic market prices may, to some extent, restrict the fulfillment of export orders, dragging down export volumes.

5. Summary and Outlook

By the end of October, graphite electrode prices rose, and some steel companies had already completed their procurement beforehand. From the procurement results, the increase did not meet expectations. The strengthening trend of petroleum coke prices has driven up graphite electrode costs, narrowing the loss margin, but profitability has not yet been achieved. Suppliers are optimistic about further price increases. It is expected that the domestic ultra-high-power graphite electrode market still has upward potential in November, but the production situation of downstream steel companies needs to be closely monitored.

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