25 years of geopolitics: How game theory explains Europe's strategic decisions

Why do conflicts often escalate even though neither side actually wants them to? And what alternatives would have been available over the last 25 years? A new, detailed background article from M. Schall Verlag addresses these questions from an unusual but highly effective perspective: game theory.

Instead of making moral assessments or assigning political camps, the article soberly analyzes the strategic decision-making paths that Europe has taken since the early 2000s - and the long-term consequences of these decisions.

Game theory as a tool for political clarity

Game theory is often associated with mathematics or economics. In reality, it is primarily a thinking tool for understanding strategic situations:

_What happens when multiple actors act rationally but distrust each other? Which incentives lead to cooperation - and which to escalation?

The article explains these basics in an understandable way, without formulas or technical jargon. Terms such as security dilemma, cooperation and mistrust spirals or path dependencies are explained clearly and then applied to real geopolitical developments.

The starting point: Europe in 2001

A central element of the analysis is the historical starting point at the beginning of the 2000s. At that time, a phase of closer cooperation between Europe and Russia seemed entirely possible. Economic cooperation, energy partnerships and security policy dialog formats were on the horizon.

The article reminds us that many of today's lines of conflict did not emerge suddenly, but have developed over years and decades - often gradually, quietly and without much public attention.

Two decision trees - two possible futures

At the heart of the article are two decision trees based on game theory:

* Path A: Cooperation - a development that would have relied on trust, economic interdependence and a common security architecture.

* Path B: Mistrust - the real path, characterized by security policy caution, increasing decoupling and escalating perceptions on both sides.

The article shows in detail what structural consequences would have resulted or have resulted from both paths - from energy prices and industrial competitiveness to Europe's geopolitical role.

Why mistrust insidiously destroys systems

A central chapter is dedicated to the core problem of game theory: mistrust. The text explains why even defensive measures are often interpreted as a threat and how this can lead to spirals of escalation - without any malicious intent.

This dynamic explains why conflicts often escalate "automatically", even though neither side originally wanted them to. The analysis deliberately avoids apportioning blame and instead focuses on structural mechanisms.

Europe's missed role as an independent actor

Another focus is on Europe's long-term position. The article argues that, for many years, Europe had the prerequisites to become an independent geopolitical player between the major power blocs. At the same time, it shows why this role is only possible to a limited extent today - partly due to economic and energy policy dependencies.

Here, too, the tone remains objective and analytical: it is not about accusation, but about understanding the strategic consequences.

A contribution to defusing heated debates

At a time when political discussions are often emotionalized, this article deliberately aims to slow things down. It invites readers to consider complex contexts as such again, to think about alternatives and not to be guided solely by current narratives.

The game-theoretical approach acts as a filter: it reduces moral overlays and directs attention to long-term structures and causal relationships.

Timeless, international and deliberately neutral

The article is designed in such a way that it will still be understandable and relevant several years from now. It dispenses with daily political buzzwords and concentrates on the basic mechanisms of international politics.

This approach also makes the text suitable for an international audience. The author plans to publish the article in several languages in order to make the analysis accessible beyond national debates.

Full article available now

The full article is available online for free and is accompanied by graphical illustrations in classic pencil style that visually support the game theory concepts.

Read the full article on the Online Magazine of M. Schall Verlag.

The article is not intended as a political statement, but as an offer of thought. It shows that many of today's developments were not without alternative - and that strategic thinking can help to make future decisions more consciously.

Particularly in complex geopolitical times, such an analytical view can help to objectify debates and bring long-term perspectives back into focus.

Frequently asked questions

* What is the core of the game theory article about?
The article analyzes Europe's geopolitical development since 2001 from a game theory perspective. It does not ask who is to blame, but what strategic alternatives would have existed and why a path of mistrust has become entrenched over many years - with long-term consequences for Europe.

* Why is game theory used as an analytical tool?
Game theory is particularly well suited to explaining situations in which several actors act rationally but distrust each other. It helps to understand why escalations can occur, even if neither side originally intended them. The approach is scientifically established and politically neutral.

* Does the article take a political stance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
No. The article deliberately avoids any political partisanship. It looks at structures, decision-making logic and long-term developments. The aim is to open up thought processes, not to predetermine opinions.

* Why does the analysis begin in 2001?
The year 2001 marks a phase in which cooperative developments between Europe and Russia seemed realistic. The article shows that many of today's conflicts did not arise suddenly, but are the result of long-term decisions and path dependencies.

* What does the article mean by "decision tree A and B"?
The decision trees stand for two fundamentally different strategic paths: a cooperation-oriented path and a mistrust-based path. The article shows that Europe has predominantly followed the second path over the years - with structural consequences.

* Why is the article still relevant today?
Because the mechanisms described are timeless. Game theory explains basic patterns of human and state interaction that will also play a role in future geopolitical situations. The text is therefore intended as a long-term analysis, not as a commentary on current events.

* What role does Europe play in this analysis?
Europe is seen as an independent actor that stood between major power blocs and had strategic room for maneuver. The article examines why this room for maneuver has diminished over time and the structural reasons for this.

* Who is the article aimed at?
The article is aimed at readers who want to better understand complex political developments - without polemics or simplification. It is deliberately written in an understandable way and is aimed not only at experts, but also at anyone interested in long-term thinking.

M. Schall Verlag
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26127 Oldenburg
Germany

https://markus-schall.com
Herr Markus Schall
info@schall-verlag.de

Schall-Verlag was founded in 2025 by Markus Schall - out of a desire to publish books that provide clarity, stimulate reflection and consciously avoid the hectic flow of the zeitgeist. The publishing house does not see itself as a mass marketplace, but as a curated platform for content with attitude, depth and substance.

The focus is on topics such as personal development, crisis management, social dynamics, technological transformation and critical thinking. All books are the result of genuine conviction, not market analysis - and are aimed at readers who are looking for guidance, insight and new perspectives.

The publishing house is deliberately designed to be compact, independent and with high standards in terms of language, content and design. Schall-Verlag is based in Oldenburg (Lower Saxony) and plans multilingual publications in German and English.

This release was published on openPR.