Track Jet Kerosene Price Trend Historical and Forecast

Jet Kerosene Price Trend and Forecast - Global Market Analysis Across North America, APAC, and Europe

Executive Summary

The global Jet Kerosene market continued to navigate an evolving landscape in 2024-2025, influenced by shifting demand patterns, regulatory changes, supply-chain adjustments, and geopolitical developments. Prices experienced a mixed trajectory across major regions, with seasonal aviation demand, crude oil fluctuations, refinery allocation behavior, and international trade flows playing central roles.

In North America, price movements through 2024-2025 were shaped by aviation sector recovery, robust refinery operations, fluctuating imports, and localized logistical pressures. The region observed mild price strengthening during Q3 2025 as travel demand surged, contrasting with the subdued pricing environment of Q2.

In APAC, India remained a focal point of regional dynamics, with monsoon-driven demand softness, import parity pricing effects, crude volatility, and increasing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) integration influencing market direction. Export tightness from East Asia further affected supply-side balances.

In Europe, regulatory momentum under the ReFuelEU SAF mandates, shifting arbitrage flows, and persistent geopolitical uncertainties defined market fundamentals. While Q3 2025 saw moderate price firming, Q1 and Q2 experienced downward pressure and volatility due to evolving supply-chain and blending requirements.

Across regions, the transition toward SAF and optimized refinery output is structurally reshaping the Jet Kerosene landscape. With aviation fuel demand continuing to stabilize post-pandemic, procurement strategies are being recalibrated amid energy transition policies and supply-chain shifts.

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Introduction

Jet Kerosene remains one of the most critical refined petroleum products worldwide, fueling commercial aviation, military operations, and multiple industrial end-uses. As global air travel continues its recovery trajectory, jet fuel markets are encountering new complexities - from changing travel patterns to sustainability mandates and unpredictable geopolitics.

This PR-style market review provides a comprehensive evaluation of Jet Kerosene price trends and forecasts across key regions-North America, the Asia-Pacific (APAC), and Europe. Drawing on extensive quarterly data and trade insights, the article examines price drivers, cost structures, procurement patterns, supply behavior, and logistics, while also assessing regulatory and geopolitical influences.

It also includes a historical quarterly review and closes with a detailed explanation of how ChemAnalyst enables procurement teams to stay ahead in this highly dynamic market.

Global Price Overview

Global Jet Kerosene prices during 2024-2025 displayed a hybrid pattern, alternating between periods of weakness driven by ample refinery output and phases of firming prompted by seasonal aviation activity and supply-chain constraints. Major global influences included:

Crude Oil Benchmarks
Brent and WTI values stayed within a stable-to-firm range, providing a consistent cost baseline. However, temporary geopolitical escalations-particularly in the Middle East-triggered brief upticks in refined fuel prices during mid-2025.

Aviation Sector Recovery
Airline activity strengthened across all major regions:

Higher passenger volumes
Increased cargo flights
Seasonal travel spikes
Yet, demand remained below 2019 benchmarks in several regions, tempering price escalations.
Regulatory Transition Toward SAF
The EU's SAF mandates and India's SAF blending roadmap began influencing refinery economics and procurement behavior, structurally altering conventional Jet Kerosene demand patterns.

Trade-Flow Adjustments
Key interregional flows shifted notably:

Increased exports from East Asia to Europe in Q3 2025 tightened APAC supply.
Greater imports into the U.S. from Nigeria's Dangote refinery eased Q1 2025 prices.
Arbitrage narrowed between Singapore and Northwest Europe, altering the direction of cargoes.
Logistics and Seasonal Impacts
Seasonal heating demand across Europe and North America, along with monsoon-related mobility shifts in India, contributed to short-term fluctuations.

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Regional Analysis

North America: Price Trend, Drivers & Quarterly Movements

Q3 2025 - Mild Price Strengthening

During Q3 2025, North America saw moderate upward movement in the Jet Kerosene Price Index. Key contributors included:

Rising commercial aviation traffic
Higher military fuel procurement
Seasonal heating demand increasing toward September
Tight inventory control by refiners
Spot price activity stayed firm through the quarter, with noticeable strengthening toward the end of September.

Why Prices Increased in September 2025

Higher aviation and heating fuel demand pushed procurement upward.
Tight inventory management and stable production costs supported pricing discipline.
Localized logistics constraints and seasonal factors added upward pressure.
Q2 2025 - Muted Pricing Environment

During Q2, North America recorded subdued Jet Kerosene prices:

Ample refinery output
Elevated inventory levels
Modest airline procurement despite rising passenger traffic
The Jet Kerosene spot price index did record an 8.6% month-on-month increase in June 2025, but remained lower year-over-year.
Stable refinery operations in the Gulf Coast and steady import flows-including from Dangote refinery-helped maintain supply-side balance.

July 2025 Price Behavior

In July:

Prices increased slightly month-over-month.
Aviation fuel demand rose during peak summer travel season.
Refinery output stayed stable, preventing large price swings.
Consistent import flows reduced volatility.

Q1 2025 - Volatility Driven by Imports

North America experienced notable price volatility due to:

Falling airline fuel consumption during January-February.
Large-volume imports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery in March 2025, adding 1.7 million barrels to inventories.
The influx of imports created downward pressure toward the end of the quarter.

Q4 2024 - High Early Demand, Late Stabilization

In Q4 2024:

Prices surged in October-November due to strong aviation demand.
Crude oil volatility and geopolitical tensions supported higher costs.
By December, prices softened as traders stockpiled inventories ahead of anticipated demand drops.

Asia-Pacific (APAC): Price Trend, Drivers & Quarterly Movements

Q3 2025 - Supply Tightness and Crude-Driven Increases

APAC markets-especially India-observed a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.08% in the Price Index. The quarter's average price hovered around USD 961.96/MT, inclusive of logistics.

Key factors:

Stronger crude benchmarks
Reduced East Asian exports to Europe tightened local supply
Higher refining margins boosted production costs
Seasonal travel demand improved, particularly around India's festival season
Inventory buffers helped maintain price stability despite shifting refinery allocations and import competition.

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Why Prices Increased in September 2025

Elevated crude oil benchmarks increased input costs.
Tightened East Asian export availability reduced imports.
Higher freight and logistics costs combined with seasonal recovery pressured inventories.
Q2 2025 - Monsoon-Led Decline

Prices fell modestly due to:

Early monsoon season reducing air travel mobility.
Sufficient domestic inventories and stable refinery operations.
Crude oil cost pass-through being limited by ample supply.
However, in July 2025, prices reversed and moved upward due to:

A rise in international crude benchmarks amid Middle East tensions.
Manufacturer-initiated price increases.
Weaker Indian rupee amplifying import parity costs.
Q1 2025 - Mixed but Gradually Declining Trend

Key movements included:

January 2025 decline due to weaker aviation demand.
February rebound driven by festival seasonal travel.
March decline from lower crude prices and strong supply-side stability.
Emerging SAF policies, including India's SAF Alliance, signaled long-term shifts in conventional jet fuel demand.

Q4 2024 - Strong Regional Demand

APAC saw upward pressure on prices due to:

Strong ATF sales in India (6.8% YoY growth).
Rising export demand from Singapore and Malaysia.
Tightened domestic supply from high holiday travel.
Europe: Price Trend, Drivers & Quarterly Movements

Q3 2025 - Moderate Upward Trend

Europe recorded mild price strengthening due to:

Increased air travel
Rising seasonal heating fuel demand
Refiners shifting yield toward diesel and gasoline over jet fuel
Spot prices firmed in September as airlines increased procurement before autumn travel season.

Why Prices Increased in September 2025

Strong aviation and heating demand
Stable production costs with slight refinery output adjustments
Logistical constraints and seasonal factors
Q2 2025 - Volatile and Regulation-Driven

Q2 was marked by SAF mandate disruptions:

ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation required 2% SAF blending.
Supply-chain stress from blending logistics increased volatility.
Middle Eastern geopolitical issues influenced trade flows.
Increased exports from Northeast Asia moderated conventional jet fuel prices.
July 2025 saw a notable surge:

Middle East conflict (Iran-Israel escalation)
~45% jump in regional jet fuel premiums
Diesel premiums surpassing jet premiums, altering distillate market dynamics
Q1 2025 - Downward Pressure from Trade-Flow Shifts

Europe experienced:

Narrowest premium gap vs. Singapore in three years
Cargoes redirected from Europe to Asia
Inventory easing kept prices soft
SAF mandates starting to reshape long-term demand
Q4 2024 - Stable Supply, Shifting Arbitrage

Europe saw:

Increased supply from Indian and Middle Eastern refineries
Singaporean prices rising above Europe's by November
European jet fuel being shipped eastward
Despite these shifts, supply remained sufficient and stable.

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Historical Quarterly Review (2024-2025)

Across the past five quarters, several structural and market-driven patterns emerged:

Demand-Driven Cyclicity
Strong festival and holiday travel spikes in APAC.
Summer peaks and winter heating demand in North America and Europe.
Gradual rebound in international travel after pandemic-era lows.
Refinery Output Shifts
Refiners across regions increasingly prioritized:

Diesel due to higher premiums
Gasoline during summer season
This occasionally tightened jet fuel availability, especially in Q3 2025 in Europe.
Trade-Flow Reconfiguration
Driven by arbitrage:

Europe-to-Asia movements in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025
East Asia-to-Europe supply tightness affecting APAC in Q3 2025
Nigeria emerging as a major supplier to North America in 2025
Geopolitical Sensitivity
Tensions in the Middle East amplified price movements, especially mid-2025.

Regulatory Transition
SAF mandates:

Increased cost volatility
Reshaped procurement behavior
Long-term demand reduction for conventional jet fuel
Production and Cost Structure Insights

Key cost components influencing Jet Kerosene production include:

Crude Oil Input Costs

Stable crude prices created predictable baselines, but geopolitical disruptions caused temporary increases.

Refining Margins

Margins varied across regions based on:

Feedstock mix
Product slate optimization
Seasonal prioritization of other middle distillates
Energy and Carbon Costs

In Europe:

Carbon compliance costs added marginal pressure.
SAF integration increased operational complexity.

Logistics Costs

Transportation, storage, and freight costs:

Rose significantly in APAC during periods of tight supply.
Remained stable in North America except for localized spikes.
Procurement Outlook for 2025-2026

Procurement strategies are undergoing significant change as buyers factor in:

Higher Volatility Expectations

Driven by:

Geopolitics
SAF mandates
Refinery allocation shifts
Increasing Reliance on Inventory Buffers
Especially in APAC, where import-driven markets require robust stockholding strategies.

Growing SAF Integration
Procurement teams across Europe and India are preparing for:

Increased SAF blending costs
Separate SAF sourcing channels
Seasonal Procurement Optimization

Airlines are timing purchases based on:

Holiday peaks
Monsoon impacts
Transatlantic travel demand cycles

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Why did Jet Kerosene prices increase in September 2025 in North America?

Because of:

Higher aviation and heating demand
Tight refinery inventories
Localized logistics constraints
Why did Jet Kerosene prices rise in APAC in September 2025?

Driven by:

Higher crude benchmarks
Reduced East Asian exports
Rising freight costs and inventory pressure
Why did European Jet Kerosene prices strengthen in September 2025?

Due to:

Aviation sector recovery
Heating demand
Refinery output shifts and supply tightness
What caused July 2025 price increases in the USA?

Peak summer travel demand
Stable refinery performance
Supplemental imports from Nigeria curbing volatility
Why did Jet Kerosene prices surge in Europe in July 2025?

Escalating Iran-Israel tensions
A 45% spike in jet fuel premiums
Tight gas oil markets altering pricing dynamics
Why did India's Jet Kerosene prices rise in July 2025?

Higher international crude prices
Rupee depreciation
Manufacturer-led domestic price adjustments
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How ChemAnalyst Supports Buyers with Real-Time Market Intelligence

ChemAnalyst empowers procurement, strategy, and supply-chain teams with real-time, data-backed insights into global Jet Kerosene markets. With coverage across 450+ commodities, ChemAnalyst delivers:

✔ Real-Time Price Tracking

Updated spot and contract prices across global markets with detailed historical data.

✔ Expert-Curated Market News

Analysts decode why prices are moving-whether due to crude volatility, geopolitical shifts, refinery outages, or trade-flow changes.

✔ Accurate Price Forecasts

Short-term and long-term forecasts help buyers optimize procurement timing and manage budgeting cycles.

✔ Supply-Chain Monitoring

Insights into:

Plant shutdowns
Turnaround schedules
Refinery production shifts
Import-export disruptions
✔ Global Ground Intelligence

Teams stationed across major ports-Houston, Shanghai, Rotterdam, Busan, Hamburg, and more-provide firsthand updates from traders, refiners, and logistics operators.

✔ Comprehensive Market Reports

Covering:

Market size
Capacity
Production
Operating efficiency
End-user demand
Company share
Manufacturing processes
Long-term forecasts through 2032
ChemAnalyst ensures that procurement teams stay ahead of volatility, anticipate disruptions, and make data-driven decisions in the dynamic Jet Kerosene market.

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