Mexico Commercial Real Estate Market set to reach 68.52 billion by 2030, Driven by Logistics and Rental Demand by 2030

Mordor Intelligence has published a new report on the "Mexico Commercial Real Estate Market" offering a comprehensive analysis of trends, growth drivers, and future projections

Introduction: Mexico's Commercial Real Estate Sector Sustains Growth Momentum

The Mexico commercial real estate market, valued at USD 64.18 billion in 2025, is expected to reach USD 68.52 billion by 2030, recording a compound annual growth rate of 6.78% over the forecast period. The country's strategic geographical position, a rising influx of nearshoring investments, and continued urban expansion are keeping demand steady across various property segments.

Office, retail, logistics, and mixed-use developments are witnessing a shift in occupancy dynamics, with logistics leading in new project activity. Mexico's macroeconomic resilience and focus on industrial corridor development, particularly in states like Nuevo León and Querétaro, are supporting sustained interest in commercial real estate. Furthermore, growing demand from corporates and SMEs, coupled with changes in workspace preferences, is shaping investment strategies across both rental and sales models.

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Key Trends Driving Market Growth

Mexico's commercial real estate landscape is undergoing notable changes influenced by broader economic and operational shifts. Several trends are contributing to demand, particularly in industrial and office sectors, while also reshaping regional dynamics.

Logistics Sector Leads Growth
The logistics and industrial segment continues to be a major contributor to the commercial real estate market. With the expansion of e-commerce, increased warehousing requirements, and relocation of supply chains closer to the U.S. border, there is a visible shift in developer interest toward building and leasing logistics hubs. Key corridors in Northern Mexico are benefiting from this trend, with industrial parks near border cities such as Tijuana and Monterrey reporting high occupancy levels.

Resilient Office Demand in Key Cities
Although remote and hybrid work models impacted global office leasing trends, demand for office spaces in business districts of Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey remains stable. Many corporates are reconfiguring space layouts rather than reducing their footprint entirely. As a result, high-quality office buildings with flexible layouts and value-added services are performing better than traditional configurations.

Retail Real Estate Adjusts to Mixed-Use Concepts
Retail is adjusting to changing consumer behavior through a shift toward experiential spaces. Developers are investing in mixed-use properties that combine residential, retail, and entertainment functions. This trend is more evident in densely populated urban centers, where land value optimization is critical.

Rental Market Gains Preference Over Sales
With fluctuating interest rates and inflation-related cost pressures, businesses are leaning toward renting commercial spaces over long-term ownership. The rental model provides flexibility and requires lower upfront capital, which is especially attractive for SMEs and startups looking to scale.

State-Level Investment Surge Driven by Nearshoring
Nearshoring continues to boost demand in industrial real estate, especially in states such as Nuevo León and Querétaro. Companies looking to relocate operations closer to North American markets are driving demand for built-to-suit facilities. This has led to regional players partnering with real estate developers to ensure timely supply.

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Market Segmentation: Diverse Demand Across Segments and Regions

The commercial real estate market in Mexico is segmented by property type, business model, end user, and geographic region. Each of these segments plays a distinct role in shaping the national landscape.

By Property Type

Office: Concentrated in major metropolitan regions, particularly Mexico City, with a shift toward Class A buildings and smart infrastructure integration.

Retail: Anchored by malls, lifestyle centers, and high-street formats, increasingly blending into mixed-use formats.

Logistics: High-growth segment due to nearshoring, e-commerce, and the rise in warehousing needs across northern Mexico.

Others: Includes co-working spaces, hospitality real estate, and special-purpose commercial spaces.

By Business Model

Sales: More common in retail and smaller office properties but facing competition from flexible models.

Rental: Becoming the dominant model, especially for logistics, office, and SME-targeted retail spaces.

By End User

Individuals / Households: Small-scale investors and entrepreneurs seeking units in co-working, retail, or serviced office spaces.

Corporates and SMEs: Driving large-scale leasing activity, particularly in logistics and office segments. Nearshoring corporates also represent a key demand group.

Others: Includes institutions, investment funds, and REITs targeting large-scale portfolios.

By States

Mexico City (CDMX): The country's largest commercial real estate market, especially in office and mixed-use developments.

Nuevo León: Witnessing industrial expansion due to nearshoring, with high demand in logistics parks.

Jalisco: Strong retail and office segment supported by population density and corporate presence in Guadalajara.

Querétaro: Gaining attention for logistics and industrial setups due to improved infrastructure.

México State (Edomex): Complementing CDMX growth with industrial parks and urban commercial spaces.

Rest of Mexico: Includes developing regions with emerging opportunities in hospitality, retail, and warehousing.

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Key Players: Leaders Shaping Mexico's Commercial Real Estate Market

Several companies are playing a central role in the development, ownership, and operation of commercial real estate across Mexico. These firms bring deep expertise, robust portfolios, and strategic investments to various segments of the market.

Fibra Uno (FUNO)
As one of Mexico's largest real estate investment trusts (REITs), Fibra Uno manages a diverse portfolio of retail, office, and industrial properties. With a significant footprint in urban centers, it is involved in both acquisition and development of premium commercial spaces.

Prologis México (FIBRA Prologis)
A key player in the logistics segment, Prologis focuses on operating and leasing industrial parks strategically located near trade corridors. It supports major manufacturing and distribution clients seeking nearshoring solutions.

Terrafina
Specialized in industrial real estate, Terrafina's properties cater primarily to manufacturing and warehousing tenants. Its presence is notable across border states and central Mexico, serving U.S. trade-linked companies.

Vesta
Vesta is known for developing industrial parks and facilities for global clients, particularly in automotive, aerospace, and electronics industries. The company has a strong commitment to sustainability and customer-focused design.

GICSA
GICSA focuses on retail and mixed-use developments. It is recognized for building integrated lifestyle centers that combine shopping, entertainment, and hospitality in urban markets.

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Conclusion: Outlook for Mexico's Commercial Real Estate Market

Mexico's commercial real estate market remains on a stable upward path, backed by diversified demand from logistics, office, and retail sectors. The rise of nearshoring has become a central force in shaping industrial demand, while urbanization continues to fuel mixed-use and retail formats. Regional hubs such as Nuevo León, Jalisco, and Querétaro are emerging as growth centers beyond Mexico City, attracting both domestic and international investment.

Flexibility in leasing terms, enhanced infrastructure, and strategic developer responses to demand trends will play a crucial role in sustaining growth. As rental models gain traction and developers align offerings with shifting corporate needs, Mexico's commercial real estate sector is well-positioned to maintain its relevance and dynamism across the forecast period.

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