Urea Prices Analysis 2025: Global and Regional Demand, News, Price Chart & Forecast

Urea Prices Decline Sharply in Q4 2024 Amid Global Oversupply and Weak Demand

Urea prices in China witnessed a significant year-on-year (YoY) decline during the final quarter of 2024, reflecting a challenging global market environment marked by weaker-than-expected demand and oversupply. According to industry data, urea prices in October 2024 stood at USD 305/TON, down 12.4% from USD 348/TON in October 2023. The decline was primarily attributed to low off-season demand from agriculture and industrial sectors, coupled with steady production levels.

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In November 2024, prices fell further to USD 285/TON, marking a 19.7% YoY drop from USD 355/TON a year earlier. This steep decline underscores mounting inventories and limited export activity, particularly from major producers in the Middle East and Asia. Weaker international buying interest, particularly from South Asia, also contributed to the price pressure.

The most notable fall occurred in December 2024, when prices slumped to USD 255/TON, representing a sharp 29.2% YoY decrease from December 2023's price of USD 360/TON. This significant drop reflected a combination of aggressive discounting to clear year-end stocks and persistently weak downstream consumption.

Despite the sharp declines in Q4 2024, Expert Market Research anticipates a mild upward pressure on prices in 2025, driven by seasonal agricultural demand and potential supply constraints due to regulatory restrictions and input cost volatility. However, market analysts also expect continued price volatility, with global macroeconomic uncertainty, energy price fluctuations, and shifting fertilizer subsidy policies influencing short-term trends.

As the market heads into 2025, stakeholders will need to closely monitor weather patterns, planting seasons, and trade flows to navigate the evolving pricing landscape for urea. The balance between supply discipline and global demand recovery will play a crucial role in determining the market trajectory.

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Global Urea Market Overview: Key Exporters, Importers, and Leading Suppliers

The global urea market plays a vital role in supporting agricultural productivity, and is characterized by robust trade between key producing and consuming countries. With rising demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers, understanding the trade dynamics and major players in the market is essential for stakeholders across the supply chain.

Leading Exporting Countries

Urea production is concentrated in several resource-rich nations with significant capacity and cost advantages. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and China are among the top urea exporters, leveraging their access to natural gas and established manufacturing infrastructure. Other important exporters include Oman, Nigeria, and Malaysia, countries with growing industrial output and government support for fertilizer exports. Germany and the Netherlands also contribute notably to global urea exports, primarily within the European market.

Leading Importing Countries

On the demand side, the largest importers of urea include major agricultural economies such as India and Brazil, where high fertilizer consumption supports crop yields across vast farmland areas. The USA, Turkey, and Australia also rely heavily on urea imports to supplement domestic production. Other key importers include Thailand, France, and Italy, reflecting ongoing demand from both agriculture and industrial sectors.

Major Urea Suppliers

The global urea supply chain is supported by several leading companies with vertically integrated operations. Abu Qir Fertilizers and Chemical Industries Co. (Egypt) and Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO) are dominant players in the Middle East. North America is represented by Agrium Inc. (Canada) and CF Industries (USA). In Europe, Yara International (Norway) and BASF SE (Germany) are major suppliers. Oman India Fertilizer Company (OMIFCO) and Acron Group (Russia) also play key roles in meeting international demand.

Together, these countries and corporations ensure the efficient movement of urea across global markets, balancing regional supply-demand gaps and supporting agricultural productivity worldwide.

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Report Scope:
• Historical Price Data and Analysis, 2021-2024
o Historical Price Data - Monthly
o Grade-Wise Price Fluctuation
o Correlation with Feedstock Price Movement
o Key Market Opportunities and Risks
• Price Outlook
o Monthly Price Forecast (Rolling 3-month forecast for 12 months) (3 Month Quarterly Update)
o Long-Term Price Forecast (2 years), 2025-2026
o Price Influencing Factors
• Supply and Demand Analysis
o Global Market Supply Analysis (2021-2026)
o Global Market Demand Analysis (2021-2026)
o Demand-Supply Gap Analysis
o Historical Dynamics (2021-2024)
o Market Dynamics (Drivers and Constraints)
o Top 5 Deficit Countries with Net Import
o Top 5 Surplus Countries with Net Export
• Cost Breakdown of Tin Plate
o Direct Cost
o Indirect Costs
o Tax and Regulatory Costs
o Profit Margin
• Latest Industry News
o Recent Developments
o Geopolitical Events
o Insights From Government Data and Industries Bodies
• Key Macroeconomic Indicators
o GDP Growth
o Inflation Rates
o Currency Exchange Rates
o Impact on Commodity Prices

How Claight Corporation (Expert Market Research) Database Can Help

The latest report by Expert Market Research, "Urea Prices, Trends, Charts, Demand, and Market Analysis - 2025 Edition," offers a comprehensive overview of the global pricing landscape for urea. Designed for industry stakeholders, the study provides detailed historical and forecast price data, highlighting key market shifts and emerging pricing trends.

Drawing from in-depth research, the report analyses the primary factors influencing urea prices, including fluctuations in raw material availability, changes in production capacity, and macroeconomic or geopolitical developments. Additionally, the report evaluates global and regional demand patterns, outlining how shifts in end-use industries such as construction, paper, and plastics are impacting market dynamics. By examining the supply-demand balance, Expert Market Research's report helps businesses understand the underlying forces shaping current and future pricing environments, offering valuable insights to guide procurement, pricing strategy, and investment planning.

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