Durum Wheat Prices Trend: Get Accurate Forecasts & Industry Insights

Durum Wheat: Standard Grade Price Trend (USD/MT) - YoY Change and 2025 Outlook

The price of standard grade durum wheat (Ex-Works Italy) has experienced a notable year-on-year (YoY) decline from 2023 to 2024, reflecting broader trends in global agricultural commodities. In October 2023, the price stood at 383 USD/MT, but by October 2024, it had dropped to 316 USD/MT, marking an 18% decrease. Similarly, prices in November and December 2024 showed declines of 16% compared to the same months in 2023, falling to 317 USD/MT and 314 USD/MT, respectively.

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This downward trend in prices can be attributed to several market dynamics, including improved harvests in major producing regions, reduced global demand, and favorable weather conditions that increased supply. Additionally, the easing of input costs and transportation challenges, which had previously driven prices up, has contributed to the lower market rates.

Despite the current softness in the market, Expert Market Research anticipates a moderate stabilization in prices during the second half of 2025. The price outlook suggests that a partial recovery may occur, driven by steady demand from the food processing industry and potential weather-related supply constraints in the latter part of the year.

Market participants are advised to monitor global crop forecasts, geopolitical developments, and trade policies closely, as these factors could influence both short- and long-term pricing trends. While the current market favors buyers due to relatively lower prices, the expected stabilization hints at a more balanced market environment ahead. Strategic procurement and storage decisions will be crucial for stakeholders to navigate the shifting landscape of the durum wheat market in 2025.

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Global Durum Wheat Trade Landscape: Exporters, Importers, and Key Suppliers

The international durum wheat market is shaped by a complex network of exporters, importers, and suppliers, each playing a pivotal role in ensuring the steady flow of this essential grain across borders. Used predominantly in pasta and semolina production, durum wheat remains a key agricultural commodity with widespread demand.

Leading Exporting Countries

Canada stands at the forefront of global durum wheat exports, recognized for its high-quality grain and consistent supply. It is followed by other prominent producers such as Turkey, France, and the United States, all of which have well-developed agricultural sectors capable of large-scale wheat production. Additionally, countries like the Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, the Slovak Republic, and Greece contribute significantly to the global export market. These nations benefit from favorable growing conditions and robust supply chains that enable them to serve a broad range of international buyers.

Leading Importing Countries

On the import side, several countries rely heavily on international suppliers to meet domestic demand. Egypt is a major importer, driven by its large population and demand for wheat-based staples. Nigeria and Saudi Arabia also feature prominently due to their growing food processing industries and consumption needs. Italy, despite being a notable producer itself, imports durum wheat to support its extensive pasta production sector. Other key importers include China, Morocco, Tunisia, and Angola-countries that face either production constraints or growing demand that outpaces local supply.

Major Suppliers in the Global Market

The global supply chain is anchored by major agribusinesses and milling companies that facilitate the movement of durum wheat from producers to end-users. Leading suppliers include Viterra (Canada), Ardent Mills (USA), and Barilla Group (Italy), which are recognized for their scale and distribution capabilities. Other notable players such as GrainCorp (Australia), Cargill (USA), and Bunge Limited (USA) bring global reach and strong logistics operations. Italian companies like Pasta Zara and Molino Casillo Group also play a vital role, particularly in supplying the European and Mediterranean markets.

Together, these exporters, importers, and suppliers create a resilient and interconnected system that ensures the global availability of durum wheat for both industrial and consumer needs.

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Report Scope:
• Historical Price Data and Analysis, 2021-2024
o Historical Price Data - Monthly
o Grade-Wise Price Fluctuation
o Correlation with Feedstock Price Movement
o Key Market Opportunities and Risks
• Price Outlook
o Monthly Price Forecast (Rolling 3-month forecast for 12 months) (3 Month Quarterly Update)
o Long-Term Price Forecast (2 years), 2025-2026
o Price Influencing Factors
• Supply and Demand Analysis
o Global Market Supply Analysis (2021-2026)
o Global Market Demand Analysis (2021-2026)
o Demand-Supply Gap Analysis
o Historical Dynamics (2021-2024)
o Market Dynamics (Drivers and Constraints)
o Top 5 Deficit Countries with Net Import
o Top 5 Surplus Countries with Net Export
• Cost Breakdown of Tin Plate
o Direct Cost
o Indirect Costs
o Tax and Regulatory Costs
o Profit Margin
• Latest Industry News
o Recent Developments
o Geopolitical Events
o Insights From Government Data and Industries Bodies
• Key Macroeconomic Indicators
o GDP Growth
o Inflation Rates
o Currency Exchange Rates
o Impact on Commodity Prices

How Claight Corporation (Expert Market Research) Database Can Help

The latest report by Expert Market Research, "Durum Wheat Prices, Trends, Charts, Demand, and Market Analysis - 2025 Edition," offers a comprehensive overview of the global pricing landscape for durum wheat. Designed for industry stakeholders, the study provides detailed historical and forecast price data, highlighting key market shifts and emerging pricing trends.

Drawing from in-depth research, the report analyses the primary factors influencing durum wheat prices, including fluctuations in raw material availability, changes in production capacity, and macroeconomic or geopolitical developments. Additionally, the report evaluates global and regional demand patterns, outlining how shifts in end-use industries such as construction, paper, and plastics are impacting market dynamics. By examining the supply-demand balance, Expert Market Research's report helps businesses understand the underlying forces shaping current and future pricing environments, offering valuable insights to guide procurement, pricing strategy, and investment planning.

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About Claight Corporation (Expert Market Research):

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