Condo market downturn in Denver: Are ski condos at risk?

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Condos were once the hottest real estate in Denver and throughout the front range and now suddenly the tides have turned. Days on the market has almost doubled, prices are down, and sellers are now in a panic to dump properties. Is now a good time to jump into the condo market? What is causing the huge reset in prices? What price points should you avoid now? What does this mean for condos in the Colorado ski towns?

4 reasons for the sudden change in Condo prices

The condo problem has been building for years but it has not hit a high note as you can see from the data above. Prices are down substantially throughout Denver and inventory has quickly jumped 38% and days on the market increased 40% in December. Why the sudden change of fortunes in the condo market.

* Legislation: Various new pieces of legislation which were meant to help homeowners have gone to far and put many HOAs on the fences. Now that it is substantially more expensive for HOAs to collect dues are going up and making it more expensive for everyone else.

* Insurance: Just like residential insurance, coverage on large commercial condos has gone up substantially in price along with new requirements to even get insurance. For example Insurance companies are now requiring updates to roofs, electrical, etc... in order to even get coverage. These costs are passed on to owners in the form of higher dues and special assessments.

* Huge capital calls: A huge number of condos were building in a 30 year period between 1970 and 2000 which means these buildings are due for major updates from boilers to roofs to elevators, etc.... This is leading to huge capital calls from owners in order to pay for the upgrades. Furthermore, many associations have drastically underfunded their reserves leading to even higher capital calls.

* Financing: Many lenders are increasing requirements for condos including ensuring associations have full replacement cost coverage which is considerably more expensive than many condo HOAs carry today. Furthermore, many lenders are requiring up to 30% down which is making it even more difficult to sell.

Long and short the capital calls, financing, and increasing HOA dues are making condos considerably more expensive to own.

What condo price points should you avoid

Lower priced condos are getting hit the hardest as the numbers no longer make sense to pay for the monthly HOA dues, capital calls, etc... At the lower price points it is now cheaper to rent which is making it increasingly more difficult to sell leading to huge increases in inventory. Furthermore, as the single family market is cooling in the front range there are other single family options that end up cheaper without the monthly HOA dues.

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Are ski towns next for a reset in Condo prices?

Will the issues Denver is experiencing in condos come to the mountain towns? The same issues will not come to the mountain towns the same way as the front range. One of the biggest reasons is that in mountain towns there is substantially less supply and very few substitutes. For example, someone who wants a place in Steamboat could buy a condo for 400k, but it is unlikely for them to jump to the single family home market with a median price of 1.5m.

Take a look at the chart above on Summit County (home to Breckenridge, Keystone, Copper Mtn, Frisco, etc...). Inventory year to date has jumped 16% and yet prices are holding up okay. Note the huge jump in December of days on the market almost doubling from last year, this makes me nervous heading into the new year. Look for 25 to usher in further pressure on condos in Colorado ski towns.

Although the condo reset in the mountains will not be as bad, there will still be some pain in many ski towns. Condo prices accelerated so quickly over the last 5 years at the same time issues of HOA insurance and capital requirements are also making it considerably more expensive to own a condo. Furthermore, in the mountains nightly rental income is flat/declining which will put further pressure on prices.

Summary

Although it seems like a sudden shift in the condo market, the factors driving condo prices lower have been in the making for years. The real estate market in Denver is just now waking up to the new reality with declining prices and a surge in inventory. Based on the 4 factors above, we are just at the beginning of this process so I would advise anyone looking to buy a condo in Denver metro to be very cautious as values have a lot further to drop especially at the lower price points.

Fortunately, the mountain condo reset will not be as bad as the Denver reset, but recent buyers and anyone looking to sell will still feel the pain with flat/declining prices which is a big change from just last year's double-digit increases. The mountains, like Denver, are at the very beginning of this price reckoning process which will lead to some minor resets in prices in the mountains and much deeper pain in the Denver metro.

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