Australian Mortgage Market investment residential mortgages will be 6.1% in 2016: Popular Trends, Forecasts and Future Opportunities

ResearchMoz added Latest Research Report titled " Australian Mortgage Market: Forecasts and Future Opportunities 2016 " to it's Large Report database.

Summary
We estimate that growth in the value of balances outstanding for both owner-occupier and investment residential mortgages will be 6.1% in 2016, a slight decrease on the strong performance in 2015. The market will continue to decelerate over the forecast period as owner-occupier growth tapers off and investment property lending fails to make up for the slack.

Key Findings
- First-time buyers remain the weakest part of the market, accounting for just 14.8% of gross advances in 2015.

- Growth in investment property lending flatlined in light of Australian Prudential Regulation Authority restrictions, with owner-occupier lending surging at the same time.

- Lending to foreign buyers is up considerably, but the majors have pulled back from foreign investors in light of fraud and the potential oversupply of apartments in key investment markets.

- Refinancing has continued to gain as a share of gross advances, increasing the churn in the market and contributing to net interest margin compression.

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Synopsis

Verdict Financials Australian Mortgage Market: Forecasts and Future Opportunities 2016 analyzes the Australian residential mortgage market, with coverage of both the investment property and owner-occupier market, including first-time buyers.

Specifically the report:

- Analyzes relative performance of the major sectors of the Australian mortgage market, including both mutual and bank as well as non-ADI lenders.

- Reviews the drivers behind recent market performance.

- Forecasts balances outstanding for both mutual and bank lenders, looking at the evolving growth of the investment property, owner-occupier, and first home buyer segments.

- Forecasts future drivers of growth and product features.

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Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The residential mortgage market in Australia is expanding at a slowing pace, weighed down by high prices in key city markets
Key findings
Critical success factors
THE MORTGAGE MARKET IN AUSTRALIA
The Australian mortgage market is moderating from the peak of the boom
Australia's residential mortgage market was worth A$1,580bn at the end of 2015
Mortgage growth has become lopsided, and is derived almost entirely from owner-occupiers
Higher rates and tighter criteria have taken the growth out of the once booming investor segment
First-time home buyers are still being squeezed from the market
Mortgage underwriting remains dominated by bank ADIs
Market profitability is under strain as net interest margins remain at all-time lows
Even the major banks are struggling with margin compression
Market activity continues to heavily feature refinancing, with talk of a construction glut not figuring prominently in lending data
The strong uptick in gross advances continues to moderate from the peak of the boom starting in 2013
With rate increases unlikely in the short term, the fixed-rate rally has fizzled
THE FUTURE DECODED
Australian mortgage lenders can expect continuing market expansion, albeit at a slower rate
Most growth will come from bank lenders as the mainstay of the market
Despite strength among individual players, conversions will see credit unions and building societies end up with lower balances
Mortgage lending over the forecast period will be affected by various factors
Factors that are relevant but discounted over the forecast period
MARKET TRENDS
The owner-occupier market will be driven by consumer confidence
Improving but erratic consumer confidence will boost growth at the margins of the owner-occupier market

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