European Football Championship 2008: Croatia’s unlucky break

Anyone who saw the incident that broke Eduardo’s leg and ended his chances of playing at Euro 2008 may be astonished to hear that his club, Arsenal FC, and his country, Croatia, estimate that the striker may only be out for a year.

Croatia coach Slaven Bilic has tried to put a brave a face on it, saying: “Our sorrow is not so large because of the Euro but because of Eduardo.” He then added: “I am not thinking about who will replace him as a striker, but I must also say Dudu [which is how the player is known to his Croatian coach and team-mates] will be irreplaceable.”

Irreplaceable is no overstatement. Eduardo was Croatia’s leading goalscorer in qualifying, with ten goals in 12 games, racking up 3558 points on the Castrol Performance Index, making him the second most effective striker in Europe after Luca Toni.

Who can step up?

With Eduardo gone, more responsibility falls on Mladen Petric (1328 CPI points) and Ivica Olic (958 points). The 27-year-old Petric has been in good form for BV Borussia Dortmund in his first season in the Bundesliga, scoring 11 goals in 18 games, and, as he grew up in Switzerland, will almost feel he’s playing on home soil.

Petric scored seven goals in qualifying – four in a 7-0 defeat of Andorra – but his best strike was the 25-yard shot at Wembley that knocked England out of Euro 2008. Having been considered, but not selected, for two World Cups and one European Championships, Petric will not be short of motivation.

Olic only scored once in qualifying – the second in the 3-2 defeat of England – but the 28-year-old striker, who can also play on the left, has been reasonably prolific for CSKA Moskva and, since January 2007, for Hamburg SV. His strike rate for Croatia – nine goals in 51 caps – is not that impressive but he is tireless, often drawing two or more defenders out of position with his runs.

Olic and fellow striker Bosko Balaban were both dropped by Bilic in September 2006 after being spotted in a Zagreb disco. Both have since rejoined the fold but Balaban’s major contribution to Croatia’s qualifying campaign was a goal scored within 20 seconds of coming on as a substitute against Andorra.

The 29-year-old was revered at Club Brugge KV – where his 40 goals in 83 games earned him the nickname Super Bosko – but hasn’t been as consistent for Croatia, scoring ten goals in 35 games. He didn’t make the Euro 2004 squad and sat on the bench for the 2002 and 2006 World Cups. Only Bilic knows if he will make more impact this summer.

Striking from the fringe

Eduardo’s absence may open the door for three fringe strikers: Igor Budan, Nikola Kalinic and Marijo Mandzukic. The 27-year-old Budan finally hit form last season for Parma, hitting 16 goals in 37 games. A Croatian youth international, Budan didn’t make his debut for the senior side until February 2007, in a friendly against Norway. Bilic may be more impressed by the claims of Kalinic and Mandzukic, two stars of the Under-21 side. HNK Hajduk Split’s Kalinic has succeeded Eduardo as the top scorer in the Croatian league while Mandzukic is so promising that NK Dinamo Zagreb paid €1.3m for him to replace Eduardo upfront.

Historically one could argue that Group games of major tournaments are often decided by odd goals and therefore the 3.5 goals that Eduardo scores in every six appearances for his national side, according to the CPI data, could be the difference between Croatia progressing beyond the group stage in June, or not.

Losing your leading goalscorer this close to a major tournament is arguably the worst that can happen to a national coach. But Bilic knows that his side can score goals from anywhere – midfielder Darijo Srna, another player dropped after ‘Discogate’, scored three vital goals in qualifying – and he has time, and friendlies, to devise a Plan B. But Eduardo’s exit is still a cruel blow for a team that had been seen as the outsiders most likely to upset the favourites.

For more news on the European Football Championship 2008 please visit http://www.castrolindex.com

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This release was published on openPR.