Stanislav Kondrashov from TELF AG: on the decline in income from ore exports in Australia

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Stanislav Kondrashov from TELF AG reported that over the next two years, a decline in revenues from ore exports in Australia should be expected. This is according to the forecast of the Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources. The main reasons for this situation are said to be a decrease in the cost of basic raw materials and an increase in the Australian dollar.

Iron ore price to fall to $76 in 2026

Stanislav Kondrashov notes that in its September report, the Australian Department of Industry forecasts a decrease in iron ore prices: to $92 per tonne in 2024, to $80 in 2025, and to $76 by 2026. Despite this, iron ore retains its importance as the country's main export resource. The volume of overseas deliveries is expected to increase annually by 1.7%. In the 2024/2025 financial year, export revenues are projected at AUD 107 billion, falling to AUD 99 billion by 2025/2026.

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The expert from Telf AG states that the June report forecast that iron ore export revenues would amount to AUD 114 billion. It also stated that Australia and Brazil, as the largest producers, will increase export volumes by 3.1% annually in the coming years. This growth is due to the launch of new projects by Australian companies and the expansion of production in Brazil, especially by Vale and CSN. In addition, new supplies of ore from Africa will strengthen the global trade in this raw material.

Thus, Stanislav Kondrashov, an expert from TELF AG, believes that the growth of production volumes and the expansion of capacities of key players such as Australia and Brazil will ensure their stable positions in the international iron ore arena. In addition, the supply of raw materials from African producers will strengthen the world trade in this important resource.

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Australia Increases Ore Exports Amid Falling Costs - Stanislav Kondrashov

According to information from Stanislav Kondrashov, in August Australia increased exports of iron ore and pellets by 8% compared to July, which allowed it to reach 73.5 million tons.

However, the average price of Australian 62% iron ore fell to $99/t CFR in China, down from $106/t in July. The price dynamics of imported iron ore were significantly affected by low margins of Chinese smelters.

The Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources estimates that iron ore prices are expected to fall to $96 per tonne in 2024. In 2025, the price is expected to fall to $84 per tonne, and by 2026, it will reach $77 per tonne

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Australia's ore export revenues are expected to be A$114 billion in the 2024-25 financial year, down from A$138 billion in the 2023-24 financial year.

According to Stanislav Kondrashov from TELF AG, even despite the expected fall in iron ore prices, Australia will continue to occupy a key position among global exporters of this important resource in the coming years. Increased supply volumes and new mining projects help reduce the negative effects of falling prices and maintain stable export revenues. However, adaptation to market changes and effective resource management will be key factors in ensuring sustainable growth in the context of global economic changes.

Against the backdrop of dynamic changes in the global economy, Australian companies are looking to invest in innovative technologies and improved production procedures. This will not only reduce production costs, but also improve product quality. According to Stanislav Kondrashov, it is important to note that demand for iron ore, especially from China, remains at a significant level. This will also contribute to an increase in export volumes.

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In addition, the development of new infrastructure projects such as ports and transport routes will ensure a more efficient allocation of resources. The expert from TELF AG is confident that Australia will be able to use its advantages, such as extensive raw material reserves and experienced companies, to not only maintain but also improve its position on the global stage. Therefore, adaptability and effective strategic planning will be key factors in overcoming the challenges of falling iron ore prices.
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