Biorefinery Market Outlook 2034: Industry to Expand from $148.4 Billion in 2023 to $360.5 Billion by 2034 at an 8.0% CAGR

The global biorefinery market, valued at US$ 148.4 billion in 2023, is poised for substantial growth over the next decade. With an impressive Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.0% from 2024 to 2034, the market is expected to reach US$ 360.5 billion by the end of 2034. This expansion is driven by a surge in demand for alternative fuel sources and the implementation of stringent regulations promoting renewable energy.

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Analyst Viewpoint

The increasing demand for alternative fuel sources is a significant driver of the biorefinery market. Biorefineries play a crucial role in decarbonizing various sectors by providing low-carbon fuel solutions for existing technologies. Additionally, stringent regulations aimed at pushing the rollout of renewable energy are boosting market demand. Governments worldwide are implementing biofuel sustainability frameworks to reduce carbon emissions and enhance energy security.

Key players in the market are converting former refining sites into biorefineries to produce biofuels and investing in R&D activities to innovate the conversion of forest sector sidestreams into sustainable biofuels and bioproducts.

Market Introduction

A biorefinery is a facility that uses biomass feedstock to produce valuable chemicals and resources for various applications. Biomass feedstock used in biorefineries includes energy crops, sugar and starch crops, multi-feedstock, and agricultural residues. Biorefineries produce traditional products like electricity and heat from biomass, as well as transportation fuels, chemicals, and materials.

Biorefinery feedstocks are classified into three generations: first-generation (crops), second-generation (residues and non-edible crops), and third-generation (algae). Biomass refining is gaining traction due to its potential for sustainable resource supply, energy security, and rural economic development, offering advantages such as lower primary product prices and reduced production costs for low-volume/high-margin coproducts.

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Key Market Drivers

Surge in Demand for Alternative Fuel Sources

The depletion of fossil fuels poses a significant threat to energy security globally. Current usage rates indicate that fossil fuels may be exhausted by 2060. Consequently, governments are seeking alternative fuel sources, and biorefineries offer a promising solution for developing a bio-based economy and supporting zero-waste principles. Biorefineries produce biofuels, bio-energy, and bio-based chemicals and materials, with biofuel adoption driving market growth. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), biofuel demand in 2022 reached a record high of 4.3 EJ (170,000 million liters).

Implementation of Stringent Regulations to Promote Renewable Energy

Globally, countries are implementing stringent regulations to reduce dependency on fossil fuels and ensure secure and affordable energy access. For instance, the European Commission launched the REPowerEU Plan in May 2022 to respond to geopolitical tensions and promote renewable energy. Companies are investing in biorefineries to align with these regulatory frameworks, contributing to market growth.

Regional Outlook

Leading Region: North America

North America held the largest share of the biorefinery market in 2023, driven by growth in the biofuels sector. The demand for renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) is rising in the U.S. and Canada. According to Rystad Energy, U.S. biofuel production is expected to increase by about 53% by 2035, reaching approximately 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Europe is also a significant market, driven by stringent energy regulations and a focus on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 55% by 2030. The development of new sustainable biorefineries is expected to support these goals.

Analysis of Key Players

Key players in the global biorefinery market are investing in constructing new facilities for producing hydrogenated biofuels. For example, Eni SPA announced plans in February 2024 to begin constructing its third biofuel production plant in Italy. Other major players include Neste, Valero Energy Corporation, Chevron, TotalEnergies, Borregaard AS, Wilmar International Ltd., Vivergo Fuels, and Cargill, Incorporated.

Recent Developments

Verbio started construction in May 2024 to convert its South Bend ethanol plant into North America's second integrated biorefinery plant, incorporating Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) and bioethanol production.
Numaligarh Refinery Ltd. (NRL) announced plans in 2023 to begin ethanol production at its biorefinery in Assam, India, in March 2024.
Market Snapshot

Market Size in 2023: US$ 148.4 Bn
Market Forecast (Value) in 2034: US$ 360.5 Bn
Growth Rate (CAGR): 8.0%
Forecast Period: 2024-2034

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Conclusion

The biorefinery market is set for substantial growth, driven by the rising demand for alternative fuel sources and stringent renewable energy regulations. Key industry players are focusing on innovation and the development of new facilities to meet the evolving needs of various applications, ensuring sustained market growth through 2034.

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