Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - Impact Assessment on Healthcare Industry: Sector Overview; Sector Wise Demand Forecast; Industry Response; Government Aids; Potential Impact; Recommendations (U.S., Germany, Spain, U.K., France, Italy, China, India, Brazi

COVID-19 Outbreak - Impact Assessment on Healthcare Industry: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered coronavirus. In December 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China, reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A novel coronavirus was eventually identified. As of April 25, there were 2.9 million cases of coronavirus worldwide resulting in deaths of more than 200K people globally. IMF predicted positive economic growth for more than 160 countries globally four months ago; however, now IMF anticipates that economies of more than 170 countries will shrink or witness negative growth in 2020 following COVID-19 outbreak.

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The COVID-19 outbreak has severely affected the healthcare ecosystem across the globe. The demand has been surging for essential healthcare equipment; however, the supply remained low. Countries are unable to meet the demand which has been surged owing to the increasing number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19.

Globally, Governments, as well as industry players, are investing into the acquisition of healthcare equipment. Healthcare providers are anticipated to witness huge drop in their profit margin.

According to research published ''The Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Radiology Practices'' on April 15, 2020 on Radiological Society of North America, the net decrease in demand for non-COVID-19 related health care and concomitant capacity expansion are encouraging developments for the collective public health response. However, their combination is also financially devastating for many medical specialties. While economic recessions tend to result in decreased health expenditures, the healthcare industry has never experienced an economic shock that is simultaneously exacerbated by the need to restrict its supply of certain services.

Different countries across the globe has witnessed huge decline in revenue over COVID-19 outbreak. In India alone, a drop of 80% patient visit was witnessed in private healthcare sector which is estimated to reduce around 60% in test volumes and revenue of the sector.

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EY-FICCI study titled, "COVID-19 impact assessment for private healthcare sector and key financial measures recommendations for the sector" reported that the Indian private healthcare has witnessed significant losses over last few months. According to the study, "The sector is expected to witness short term operating losses to the tune of INR 14,000 to 24,000 Crore for a quarter. For the hospital sector, which is already constrained with liquidity, onset of such losses will cause cash balances to be completely depleted within a month. The revenue for the sector in FY 21 is also expected to be lower by 20-35% (compared to FY 20).

Government responses:

Different governments across the globe are taking initiatives to support healthcare industry amid COVID-19 outbreak. In the U.S., enforced USD 484 billion Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act. The legislation includes:

o USD 310 billion for additional forgivable Small Business Administration loans and guarantees to help small businesses that retain workers;
o USD 60 billion to provide Small Business Administration grants to assist small businesses; USD 75 billion for hospitals; and
o USD 25 billion for expanding virus testing.

In Romania, key tax and spending measures announced so far about 2 percent of 2019 GDP include:

o Additional funds for the healthcare system;
o Covering partially the wages of parents staying home for the period the schools are closed; and
o Measures to support businesses

The authorities in Singapore announced 4 packages of measures on February 18, March 26, April 6, and April 21. The total amount of packages amounting to S$63.7 billion (13 percent of GDP). Funds to contain the outbreak are about S$800 million (mainly to the Ministry of Health). Similarly, other governments are taking measures to combat the COVID-19 and provide support to the healthcare stakeholders.

COVID-19 Benchmark to SARS

According to a study published on Pubmed, "The impact of the SARS epidemic", the challenge of SARS highlighted on the need for greater investments in public health infrastructure. The outbreak placed a huge burden on international health systems that were already straining to address AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and a host of other conditions. WHO had an established structure to coordinate international resources and personnel and thereby muster surge capacity to address such outbreaks. A key factor underlying the influence of SARS on public health, political, and economic systems was the infection of large numbers of health care workers. The impact of SARS felt most in the local health care systems of affected areas, where caregivers were frequently hospitalized due to infection.

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