Impact of COVID-19 on the Brazil Economy Analysis, Trends, and Forecast 2019 to 2025

Brazil is one of the fastest emerging economies across the globe with the nominal GDP of around $1.8 trillion in 2019 as per the International Monetary Fund. Brazil has also second-largest manufacturing sector in the Americas with industries ranging from automobiles, steel, and petrochemicals to computers, aircraft, and consumer durables. Brazil is one of the fastest emerging economies across the globe with the nominal GDP of around $1.8 trillion in 2019 as per the International Monetary Fund.

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Brazil has also second-largest manufacturing sector in the Americas with industries ranging from automobiles, steel, and petrochemicals to computers, aircraft, and consumer durables. However, the recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19), originating from China, has put a threat to the macroeconomic stability of Brazil as well as other Latin American and the Caribbean countries. Countries of Latin America, including Brazil, have significant links to China and their economic relation with China have rapidly increased in recent decades, particularly through trade, foreign direct investment, and loans. In 2000, Latin America's trade with China was valued at $12 billion, which increased to $306 billion in 2018.

China represents nearly 28% of total Brazilian exports, 10.5% of Argentine exports, and 32.4% of Chile's export. Moreover, these countries export primary products such as minerals and metals, agriculture products, and fuels to China. This trade of goods has got negatively impacted due to COVID-19 spread. The report analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the Brazil economy and major verticals across the country. China has been trading with Brazil countries for decades. Its main Brazil trading partners include Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Colombia, and Venezuela. The export of these clusters of countries is concentrated in four products including copper, soy, crude oil, and iron ore, which represent around 75% of Brazil exports. The spread of coronavirus that has led to the implementation of lockdown for people as well as businesses, will negatively impact the trade of Brazil countries with China.

Moreover, verticals such as automobile, retail, mining and minerals, travel and tourism, oil industry, and others have been analyzed in the report. The oil industry is one of the industries that contribute significantly towards the economy of some Brazil countries including Brazil and Mexico. Chinese companies have also invested a significant amount of capital in the oil and gas sector of several other emerging markets including Brazil and Mexico.

Owing to the faltering energy consumption in China and the rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe, these countries too may witness some dip in their oil and gas income. Brazil and Nigeria export considerable volumes of their crude oil production to China, which is expected to drop over the short term. Further, the report analyzes the companies operating in Brazil whose business operations are significantly affected due to COVID-19. Some of these companies include AmBev, Andrade Gutierrez, Avianca Brasil SA, Braskem SA, JBS SA, PetróleoBrasileiro SA, TrollerVeículosEspeciais SA, and others.

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Major Verticals Affected

o Automobile
o Mining and Minerals
o Aviation
o Oil Industry
o Retail
o Others (IT & Telecom)

Company

o AmBev
o Andrade Gutierrez
o Avianca Brasil SA
o Braskem SA
o Copacol
o Hypera Pharma SA
o Iochpe-Maxion SA
o JBS SA
o PetróleoBrasileiro SA
o TrollerVeículosEspeciais SA

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