Epic Research Daily Agri Commodity Report Of 11 July 2018

India's Rice exports likely to decline from October as the government increases guaranteed prices that farmers receive for much of their crop, making new season cargoes expensive compared to supply from rival growers. Lower exports would mean that India loses market share in key Asian and African markets, traders and industry sources said, with exports from countries such as Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar likely to fill any gaps. India raised prices paid to local farmers for common grade paddy rice by 13 percent from a year ago to 1,750 rupees ($25.50) per 100 kg.

The Cardamom export have drooped in the new season after a record export last year and production is also likely to be down by 40% as many plants have been damaged due to unfavorable climate. Harvest of Cardamom this season started in June, over a month early this year due to heavy summer rains in Kerala, the top producing state. But the southwest monsoon has also been intense, accompanied by strong winds. Exports to Saudi Arabia have virtually stopped in the last couple of months with the government tightening the standards for pesticide monitoring and rejecting some Indian consignments.

Soon after the Centre declared a hike in minimum support prices (MSPs) for most agricultural commodities, Saurashtra Oil Mill Association (SOMA) requested that imports of Pulses and Edible Oil to be confined to keep domestic production competitive and ensure that farmers get the benefit of higher MSPs. Pulses in general are sold below MSP throughout the season even as fairly large quantity of the commodity was imported. Similar is the case with Oilseeds. Farmers sold them below MSP even as our imports constitute more than half of Edible Oil demand in the country. During refining of Palmolien oils, a very significant quantity, about 30 per cent, is lost as a byproduct. This byproduct, known as Palm stearin, is used mainly for manufacturing of soaps and detergents.

Economic News

India's rice exports are set to ease from October as the world's biggest shipper of the grain boosts guaranteed prices that farmers receive for much of their crop, making new season cargoes expensive compared to supply from rival growers. Lower exports would mean that India loses market share in key Asian and African markets, traders and industry sources said, with exports from countries such as Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar likely to fill any gaps. India on Wednesday raised prices paid to local farmers for common grade paddy rice by 13 percent from a year ago to 1,750 rupees ($25.50) per 100 kg, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi looking to woo millions of rural poor ahead of a general election next year. The government typically buys more than a third of the country's rice output at a fixed price, which also has a direct impact on prices paid by traders.

Technically Mentha Oil market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by 0.72% to settled at 1378 while prices up 55.3 rupees. Now MCX Mentha Oil is getting support at 1411.6 and below same could see a test of 1385.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1451.2, a move above could see prices testing 1464.4. Mentha Oil on MCX settled up by 4% at 1438 due to bullish demand outlook from domestic market as well as exporters. Spot markets are also witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies. Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving upwards on rising demand from end users. The Multi Commodity Exchange of India will double the total additional margin to 10% on both buy and sell side of all running as well as yet-to-belaunched contracts of mentha oil from Monday. Despite the peak season of harvest in June, prices of mentha oil have risen over 20% since the beginning of June as farmers held back stocks. Farmers are holding back stocks as they are expecting prices to rise to 1,800 rupees a kg in the next two-three months.

Trading Recommendations

SELL CORIANDER JUL BELOW 4660 TARGET 4640/4620/4600 SL 4690
SELL TURMERIC JUL BELOW 7070 TARGET 7040/7010/6980 SL 7110
SELL GUARGUM5 JUL BELOW 8410 TARGET 8370/8330/8290 SL 8460

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This release was published on openPR.