Epic Research Daily Agri Commodity Report Of 20 June 2018

Around 25% of soybean stocks are with farmers and stockiest till May 31 on weak demand from crushers, said the Soybean Processors Association of India in a press release. Of total 8.450 million tons soybean around 2.16 million soybeans still with farmers and stockiest while 7.1 million tons have arrived in the market till May 31, report said. Soybean crushing dropped to 6.050 million tons during Oct-May compared to 6.175 million tons in the same period a year ago. Crushing for May dropped to 500,000 tons compared to 600,000 tons in the same period a year ago while lower than 550,000 tons, SOPA said. Meanwhile, India's soymeal exports during Oct-May dropped to 1.213 million tons, SOPA said.

The latest update from Cotton Advisory Board (CAB), India's cotton production for this season (October 2017 to September 2018) to be 370 lakh bales. Earlier, the board had estimated cotton production to be 345 lakh bales and exports at 59 lakh bales for the season when it had met in December. Production estimates were lower in the beginning of the season as the board expected damage to the crop from bollworm attack. However, state governments took steps to contain the damage.

Area under sugarcane cultivation in Maharashtra, India’s second-largest sugar producing state, is expected to increase nearly 25% in the next crushing season beginning October 1. Experts said assured returns for growers, coupled with better water availability, would propel the shift to sugarcane cultivation, especially given prolonged subdued realisations for most other crops. The sugar industry of Uttar Pradesh, the largest sugar producing state, which is also eyeing a bumper crop, has already communicated to the government its inability to continue with sugarcane crop in the next season. Officials in Maharashtra’s sugar commissionerate said the area under sugarcane cultivation during 2018-19 is expected to be around 11.26 lakh hectares.

Economic News

Turmeric sowing has started in some of the producing centres of southern India but lack of adequate moisture hit planting operations. Sowing is expected to be higher this year as farmers got good prices for their produce. India's April-December turmeric export decreased 6% to 80,400 ton. The price of turmeric has decreased and the sale of turmeric increased. Buyers, quoting the lower price for both varieties of turmeric, purchased a good number of bags for their local demand said Krishnamurthy, a trader. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association Sales yard, finger turmeric sold at Rs. 5,703-8,369 a quintal, while the root variety sold at Rs. 5,098-7,527. At the Regulated Marketing Committee, finger turmeric sold at Rs. 6,6859-8,369, and the root variety at Rs. 6,291-7,403. At the Erode Cooperative Marketing Society, finger turmeric sold at Rs. 7,269-8,199, while the root variety sold at Rs. 6,629-7,689. Last year, APMARKFED bought nearly 48,500 ton of turmeric when prices crashed due to bumper output.

Technically Mustard Seed market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by 1.91% to settled at 142520 while prices down 9 rupees. Now NCDEX Mustard Seed is getting support at 3983 and below same could see a test of 3958 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4033, a move above could see prices testing 4058. Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled down by 0.22% at 4008 on profit booking after prices gained on higher demand for oil in domestic market and lower arrivals. Declining arrivals in local mandis and higher demand from crushers in anticipation that lower import data may cause higher demand of oil in domestic market. Shipment of rape oil (canola) in May month dropped to 22,030 tons compared to 29,143 ton in April, data released by Solvent Extractors' Association of India showed. According to data compiled by the MOPA, mills across the country crushed 900,000 tn of the oilseed in May, unchanged from the previous month.

Trading Recommendations

SELL CORIANDER JUN BELOW 4350 TARGET 4330/4310/4290 SL 4380
SELL TURMERIC JUN BELOW 7170 TARGET 7140/7110/7080 SL 7210
SELL GUARGUM5 JUN BELOW 7450 TARGET 7410/7370/7330 SL 7500

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