(openPR) - No major tournament is without its potential ‘banana skins’ and the Castrol Performance Index has identified the likely candidates at this year’s European Championships…

There’s a fine line between confidence and complacency. When the unfancied Greeks won Euro 2004 they qualified from their group at the expense of the highly rated Spain. Similarly Italy were sent packing by Denmark, while Germany lost out to the Czech Republic.

GROUP B – Poles on a roll

Germany’s position as Group B favourites leaves Croatia, Poland and Austria seemingly scrambling for second, and while Croatia are favourites for many, they’ll sorely miss top-scorer Eduardo, out injured. Subsequently the Poles – who, in qualifying, showed up well against the so-called ‘bigger’ nations – could be the surprise package.

One Polish blogger describes the team as having ‘modernised’ and they’re tough to beat. They topped their qualifying group ahead of Portugal, Serbia and Finland, and would fancy their chances against any quarter-final opponents, not least Group A favourites Portugal: Leo Beenhakker’s Poland have played the Selecção das Quinas twice in the last year, and emerged with four points. Moreover, while Portugal boast more possession than any team in qualifying – averaging 57 minutes of ball retention per game to Poland’s 45 – the Poles were deadlier in front of goal. Ebu Smolarek scored nine goals (Cristiano Ronaldo got eight), while the ‘White and Red’ spurned just 58 shots compared to Portugal’s 112.

GROUP C – Defence the key?

Romania face Italy, the Netherlands and France in the ‘group of Death’ (so-called because those three have won four European titles between them) so, unsurprisingly, are rank outsiders to progress. Yet Victor Piturca’s side were strong in qualifying – not least against the Dutch.

In qualifying, Romania took four points off the Oranje and topped their group – which could prove a psychological advantage when the two meet on 17 June. They also boasted the fifth-best defensive record, and have three of the CPI’s top 20 defenders, including one of the fastest: in Romania’s 3-0 win against Russia, Gabriel Tamas clocked 34.9km/h.

Romania also hold the ball well and boast a potent attack. On the road to Euro 2008 they kept the ball for 51 minutes per game (on average), more than both the Netherlands and Italy. They scored 26 goals, too, the fourth-highest of the teams at the finals; contrast that to the Netherlands’ 15. And while seven Romanians scored two or more, and Adrian Mutu (2,291 points) and Ciprian Marica (1,289) – with seven goals between them in their last seven qualifiers – occupied fifth and 17th places in the CPI respectively, Robin van Persie was the solitary Dutchman in the top scorer’s list, with four goals.

For more news on the European Football Championship 2008 please visit www.castrolindex.com

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