Argentina: New Regulatory Framework and Recent M&A Activity Will Boost Competition in Telecom and Media Markets

The arrival of Mauricio Macri in November 2014 to the Argentinean presidency brings a more optimistic investment environment for the country in general and the telecom sector in particular. The introduction of a series of regulatory changes aimed at improving and modernizing the telecom sector will help to boost competition and growth in the market. We project that from 2015 to 2020, telecom and pay-TV services revenue will decline at a -5.1% CAGR in US dollar terms as a result of the progressive depreciation of the Argentinean peso over the forecast period. However, in local currency terms, double-digit inflation will push nominal revenue to expand at a CAGR of 12.1% annually, mainly supported by rising demand for fixed and mobile data services.

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Key Findings

Argentina’s telecom and pay-TV market generated $13.3bn in service revenue in 2015, up 2.9% from 2014 (20.0% in local currency), a modest expansion given the country’s double-digit inflation rates. Mobile voice and data services were the main contributors to revenue, together accounting for 54.5% of the total in 2015, followed by the pay-TV segment, which accounted for 18.7% of total service revenue. With the EIU forecasting a strong devaluation for the Argentinean peso in 2016, most telecom segments will experience revenue declines in dollar terms during the forecast period.·President Mauricio Macri has introduced a set of important reforms aimed at improving and modernizing the telecom and media sectors through the creation of a regulatory framework more attuned to current digital convergence trends. In support of these changes, and one year after the approval of Argentina’s telecom law (Argentina Digital), the government announced plans to issue a new telecom and media law to replace the “Argentina Digital Law” (Law 27.078), approved in December 2014, and the Media Law (Law 26.522), approved in 2009, which regulates the distribution of TV and radio licenses in Argentina.
Telecom incumbents Telefónica/Movistar and Telecom Argentina/Personal were responsible for nearly 53% of total telecom and pay-TV services revenue in 2015. Their combined share has been declining progressively over the past few years, mostly the result of the rising contribution of cable operator Cablevisión Fibertel, which competes with Telefónica and Telecom in the fixed broadband market. With the approval of the country’s new telecom regulatory framework, we expect competition among these three players to intensify as Telefónica and Telecom enter the pay-TV market and as Cablevisión Fibertel enters into the mobile telecom market, thanks to its recent acquisition of Nextel.
Argentina closed 2015 with 63.5m active subscriptions and a penetration rate of 147.3%, well above the Latin American average (119.3%). We project that Argentina’s mobile subscriber base will continue expanding during the 2015-2020 period (3.8% CAGR).
Broadband penetration stood at 18.4% at the end of 2015, above the Latin American average of 11.6% but several percentage points below the regional leader Uruguay (28.3%). We expect fixed broadband penetration will continue growing to reach 25.0% by year-end 2020, supported by greater service adoption among residential customers and the deployment of a state-owned fiber-optic backbone network aimed at improving connectivity in underserved areas.

Synopsis

Pyramid Research’s report, “Argentina: New Regulatory Framework and Recent M&A Activity Will Boost Competition in Telecom and Media Markets,” provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in Argentina today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2020. It delivers deep quantitative and qualitative insight into Argentina’s telecom market, analyzing key trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing risk factors, based on proprietary data from Pyramid Research’s databases.

It provides in-depth analysis of the following:

Argentina in a regional context; a comparative review of market size and trends with that of other countries in the region.
Economic, demographic and political context in Argentina.
The regulatory environment and trends; a review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as relevant developments pertaining to spectrum licensing, national broadband lans, number portability and more.
A demand profile; analysis as well as forecasts and historical figures of service revenue from fixed telephony (including VoIP), broadband, mobile voice and data, and pay-TV markets.
The service evolution; a look at the change in the breakdown of overall revenue by fixed/pay-TV and mobile sectors and by voice, data and video in the current year as well as the end of the forecast period.
The competitive landscape; an examination of key trends in competition and service providers’ performance, revenue market shares and expected moves over the next 18-24 months.
An in-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony and broadband services, mobile voice and data services, and pay-TV services; a quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by technology/platform as well as operator, average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.
Main opportunities; this section details the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in Argentina’s telecommunications and pay-TV markets.

Reasons To Buy

Facilitates service providers, mobile operators, tower operators, equipment manufacturers/vendors, investment banks, management consulting companies, industry associations, and regulators, to gain a context of the Argentinean telecom services market, to align business strategies.
Understand Argentina’s telecommunications regulatory framework, and how it will evolve over the next 18-24 months.
Assess Argentina’s fixed telephony (including VoIP), broadband, mobile voice and data, and pay-TV market size.
Investigate current and forecast trends in Argentina’s fixed telephony (including VoIP), broadband, mobile voice and data, and pay-TV markets.
Gain insight on Argentina’s telecoms and pay-TV market competitive landscape, examining key trends in competition and service providers’ performance, revenue market shares and expected moves over the next five years.
Identify and assess the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in Argentina’s telecommunications and pay-TV markets.

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