New betting exchange makes trading simple and interactive

Munich, 13.10.2010 – There are several ways to foresee the future: Experience, expertise, and wisdom can deliver an accurate prediction on the outcome of an event. Will Osama bin Laden ever be captured? Will Iran be bombed by the US in 2011? A group of young, German students believe that these answers can be found by setting up a trading platform for any such questions. In order to generate data for a PhD thesis they launched an internet-platform today where users predict the future better than experts, polls and prophets through trading the outcome of events like financial assets.

So how does this work?
Generally speaking it is a hybrid of derivative trading (the outcome of events), skill gaming (no real money is traded) and youtube (everybody creates content).Users create events that either occur or do not occur (e.g. "Will Marihuana be legal in the European Union before 2020?").

Users then trade virtual money on this event before the outcome is known. Those who believe the event is more likely than the current propability (e.g. 68%) buy "X will occur" contracts at$ 0.68. Users who think the event occurs with a lower propability buy " X will not occur" contracts at $0.32.. As soon as the outcome is known each held contract pays off $1 or $0 depending on whether the prediction was correct (= $1 per contract) or incorrect (=$0 per contract). Traders who have predicted that X will occur make a profit of $1 (expiry value) - $0.68 (Purchase value) = $.32 per share.

„We are clearly are not the first prediction market out there. In fact we were fascinated by existing platforms but saw much more potential than is currently exploited in the way such markets are operated“ tells us Sebastian Diemer, the founder behind predictX. „Existing prediction markets are highly technical and little fun to use. Low liquidity in markets means that orders are not matched instantly but are pending for weeks or even months before they are matched by a counter-party. Users cannot decide what they want to trade on and finding the right events can take hours. Sharing events through social media is still missing.“

New developments and features make predicting more fun than ever.In order to make trading more interesting, predictions more accurate and to attract more users, the founders developed technical features that „take prediction markets out of the lab and into the Web 2.0“.

PredictX is a non-commercial platform that „combines a complex trading back-end with a highly usable and simple trading interface“ says Alexander Graubner-Müller, the co-founder, who developed a market-maker that is likely to set new standards in the industry through artificial intelligence in price setting.

PredictX GbR is a non-profit organization that was founded in Germany 2010 in order to expose the academically developed market core engine to a realistic trading environment.
PredictX GbR consists of 2 graduated economics students and is currently not backed by investors.

PredictX GbR
Lothringer Straße 8a
81667 München

Press Contact:
Sebastian Diemer
sebastian@predictx.org
+491708391337

This release was published on openPR.